Monday, February 28, 2011

R.O 150 Unemployed Salaries

No doubt that the government here in Oman has taken a step forward in pleasing its people and boosting its economy. This is all thanks to his Majesty the Sultan's due diligence. He has ordered that 50000 jobs be given and that every unemployed person to receive 50 Rials per month. This step was warmly welcomed by the people even though they aren't aware of the possible implications that occur, I have listed a few potential affects below:




1-Minimum wage will surely rise dramatically which will wipe some small businesses out. This shouldn't be a problem in the long run however, as spending power of individuals would increase and that in return would boost the economy and businesses in general.



2- Unemployment should increase in the short term as low paid workers resign from their minimum paid jobs if their wages aren’t increased. This will also only affect the economy in the short term as inflation will force the unemployed to re-seek employment.



3- Boosting the wages of the minimum paid workers will also cause a chain reaction and eventually boost all wage classes. This could prove to be both a problem and a blessing.



4- Spending power will surely boost the economy in the long run and also cause a drastic rise in inflation. However, given Oman's small population and the resources available in the regional nations I don’t expect to see hyper inflation as there won't be any shortage in supply.



Of course there are other numerous affects that could take place but are highly unlikely. There also are other predictions that are too far out into the future that I avoided writing here. Attempting to predict the state of the economy 10 years ahead of time is almost always a long shot.





Monday's Game Plan

With geo-political events continuing to take place in Libya and some arab nations, market volatility has returned which was reflected by the VIX. Oil has also tested its key $100 level and is on the verge of taking it out. Commodities with oil in particular should exhibit volatility in Monday's session. Meanwhile, the SPY seems en route to resume its up trend. The key levels to watch on the SPY are 129.70 - 134.50. Any breach above or below those levels should signal continuation. Another strong sector is the SMH sector which I will pay particular attention to on Monday.

Longs:

VLO
ALTR
GG
HAL
KLAC
QCOM
DD
JNPR

Breakouts:

SLW>42.35
BHI>71.85
CHK(ID)
HON>58.00
TXN(ID)
BMY<25.10
COP(ID)

Shorts:

WDC
TGT
WMT

Friday, February 25, 2011

Friday's Game Plan

Overnight, markets world wide rallied and this can cause the SPY to open higher possibly rally as well. The last three days in the SPY saw down days that closed near or above the midpoint of the day on above average volume. There could have been buying on those down days, after all we are still in a bull market. The levels I'd be watching are yesterdays high at 131.44 and 132.00 as resistance. To the down side we have 130.20 and 129.70 as support. In the past three days the strongest sector that held this market has been tech. I will be paying attention to the NASDAQ ETF the QQQQ this morning to identify if the sector is to lead us out of this three day sell off.

 Longs:

JNPR
CIEN
ALTR
KLAC
EMC
JPM
CVX

Breakouts:

JCP>37.20
ADM(ID)
NTAP(ID)
AXP(ID)
TXN(ID)
WFC(ID)
NEM<54.30 *

Shorts:

PCAR
WDC
BK
F
KGC
BBY
HPQ

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Thursday's Game Plan

The market continued to sell off yesterday as the SPY sold off for the first few hours of the day and then saw some short covering near the end of the day. The SPY also closed below the 10-20 DMA indicating that some selling has hit the market. At this stage the trend hasn't changed yet. We are still in a bull market. Commodities were the only strong sector yesterday as the market sold off. Energy sector was also strong. I will continue to look at those sectors along with any individual stocks that fit my criteria.

Longs:

CHK
GG
XOM
HAL
TRV
COF
ALTR
EMC
JCP
DD

Breakout:

SLW> 42.30

Shorts:

TGT
BK
PCAR
F
GM
WDC
UAL

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Wednesday's Game Plan

Yesterday we saw some broadbased selling across all sectors as profit taking and geopolitical events took their toll on the markets. This being said, we are still in a bull market. One down day doesnt change the trend. I will continue to look for longs after the open unless the market sells off on my face. Then I'd probably do nothing, I wont short this market just yet. Selling has been met by buying when ever the market went down. Technology with the QQQQ's and the financials were pretty weak yesterday, I will be looking to see if that weakness persists today.

Longs:

XOM
GG
TRV
EMC
HPQ

Shorts:

BBY
SWN
CNX
MRK
TGT
PCAR
AKAM
STT
BRCM
FCX
KGC
WFC

Breakouts:

SLW>42.35

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Tuesdays Game Plan

Geopolitical events continued to affect the market over the weekend, this in return will surely cause the SPY to open out of balance today. At the moment the futures is trading lower than Fridays close. This being said, any selling today is due to a geopolitical event and could be met with buying. The strongest sector last weak was the commodities sector and silver in particular.

Longs:

SLW
ORCL
TJX
CMCSA
BA>73.00
HON
XOM
KLAC
SLB
DD

Breakouts:

COH>58.60
JPM>48.20
MMM>93.00
JCP(3ID)
HPQ(ID)
NVDA>26.00
CHK
JNPR
HAL
ALTR>42.00

Breakdown:

FCX<52.30
BRCM<42.00

Shorts:

BBY
PCAR<52.00
CNX
TGT
AKAM
NTAP

Friday, February 18, 2011

Friday's Game Plan

Today we have options expiration so I expect the day to be slow in afternoon. We also have a 3 day holdiday up ahead and it wont surprise me if traders take an early leave. That being said, the SPY continued to rally yesterday on 109 million shares which is below average. This rally on low volume indicates that the market sellers are simply absent and are unwilling to sell yet. My bias remains bullish with a particular interest in oil and gold stocks.

Longs:

NVDA
AKS
VLO
HAL
HIG
DD

Breakouts:

SLW
WLP>67.30
JNPR
ADBE
XOM> 84.00
JPM

Shorts:

EXPE

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Thursday's Game Plan

Yesterday we cleared the important 133.50 level in the SPY but did so on below average volume. The SPY's range was also narrow but managed to close above the level at 133.85. The divergence yesterday gave us a sign intraday that the market wasn't as strong as it should have been after clearing the key level, the second higher high in the SPY was not followed by another higher high in the NYSE TICK's, this divergence was a weak sign that prompted me to take profits and wait on the sidelines. It was a wise decision as the NYSE TICK rarely lies.

As for the strongest sectors yesterday, oil came in first followed by the retail sector. Today I will be looking for the SPY to contine to hold above the key level for me to be long and if the market trades inside yesterday then I will stand aside as a another choppy day seems likely.

Longs:

JDSU
HAL
JPM
ADBE
ALTR
IAG

Breakouts:

AET>38.10
HPQ>49.35
BA>73.00
AXP>47.00 Triple Top
TWC>72.50
DD> Multi Year High Breakout.
XOM(2 ID)
SWN(2 ID)
EBAY> 34.80
BRCM<41.80

Shorts:

CELG (B trade)
PCAR
EXPE

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Wednesday's Game Plan

Nothing much happened yesterday, we had another choppy below average day. The picture hasn't yet changed, my bias is the same; long till prover otherwise. The Euro continues to demonstrate weakness premarket and that could be an indication that we will open lower. The levels that I watch in the SPY are 131.30 to the downside and 133.50 to the upside, anything in between is in the chop zone.

Longs:

SLW: Gap above the 50 SMA and held.
AEM: Gap above the 50 SMA and held
EBAY
JNPR
TRV
JPM

Breakouts:

URBN>38.00
IAG:21.50
DAL(ID)
KLAC:(ID)
EXPE(ID)
JCP:(ID)
COP(ID)
NOV(ID)
ALL<30.40

Shorts:

CSCO
SWN

Monday, February 14, 2011

Monday's Game Plan

On Friday, the SPY cleared its key resistance level at 132.64 on news that Egypts president had stepped down. I am curious to see whether this level holds or not, if we open higher I will be waiting for price to accept above that level and if we open back inside the range, I will use the range extremes as reference points.The strongest sector on Friday was the financials followed by the retail sector. The weakest was commodities, oil and gold. Oil still remains in play as it didnt sell off on friday, it just demonstrated slight weakness. Premarket, the dollar is rallying which could indicate a lower opening today in the SPY.

Longs:

JDSU
WFC
JPM
USB
KLAC
TJX
ALTR
DD
JNPR
HAL

Breakouts:

UAL> 27.50
AXP>46.75
AU<44.35
EBAY
BBY<33.40
TRV>ID

Shorts:

PCAR
CSCO

Friday, February 11, 2011

Fridays Game Plan

Yesterday we had another choppy day where the markets grinded up all day long after an early sell off. This slow rise is beginning to feel like there’s some distribution up there, but that’s a totally different story that I wont get into. Clearly the SPY is in an hourly range for four days now, the levels to watch are 132.64 - 131.10. A close below any of these two levels may indicate the direction for the following days. The main thing to take from yesterday was the strength from the technology and oil sectors. It seems that this market is rotating daily, each day we get a different sector that lifts the market and keeps it at those levels. This could be both bearish or bullish reflecting the uncertainty in the markets at these levels.

Longs:

ALTR
EBAY
JNPR
NOV
JDSU
HAL
DOW
COF
DD
XOM
IAG
SLB

Breakouts:

VLO
INTU
AXP
TJX>50.00
WFC (ID)
BA>72.95

Shorts:

AMGN
CVS
CSCO

JDSU Intraday Yesterday




Heres an example of a Runaway Gap. Its an extremely strong pattern that indicates that sentiment is in one direction.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Thursdays Game Plan

Today I opened marketwatch.com and was stunned by the title, it said '' Street sentiment said: SELL''. The SPY barely went down yesterday and everytime it tried to head lower it was met with more buying! The bulls are extremely persistant. I will continue my bullish outlook as nothing has changed yet If we do head lower after the opening I expect buyers to step in once more. This being said, the weakest sector yesterday was the commodities sectors (Oil, Gold, Silver...etc) indicating that money is fleeing from those sectors and into equities. Retailers were the strongest sector yesterday along with industrials. However, I will be cautious today because if I am wrong then we are in a transitioning process and trades will be directionless. If that happens I will step aside.

Longs:

HPQ
DIS
EMC
JCP
NTAP
MCD
COH
HD
COST
XOM

Breakouts:

DD(2ID)
DLTR (4ID)
RTN(2ID)
COF(ID)
JPM> 46.00

Shorts:

ABT
AMGN
PCAR
GM
AEM
BBY
M

One of the things that keeps trends going is the widespread urge to fight them.

An excellent article that I had to post, its from the Trader Psyches newsletter, awesome stuff.

The first thing that comes to mind is "Oh, that move is too extreme and not supported, I think I will fade it." The majority of short-term traders do exactly that and put their stops just outside the day's range.



Simultaneously another group of traders feel severe regret over missing a good move and mistakenly think the only trade left is to take the other side. ("Oh it may still be going up but I can grab a few quick points on the retrace".) Now, where do you suppose THEIR stops are?
 You got it... right outside the range.


The minority of traders wait for a pullback and instead of thinking "Oh now it is over" they get on-board in the direction of the trend - somewhere away from the extreme of the first or second push.


These members of the smarter money gang provide the "support" and in today's case also make a few of those people in the first group act out their fear of a short squeeze and benefit from the buying that starts to happen when the market fails to retrace any truly convincing amount.


What happens next? You got it - a move outside the range and the triggering of the stops of the first two groups. ... In other words, new highs on the day.


So this leaves the question - in any kind of trend, how do you learn to be in the pullback group (and circumvent the fear of missing out)?


Answers


#1) Learn to read the market as you would read an opposing team of approximately equal talent.


#2) Trace the feelings and their action-impulses MORE than you trace back on the chart. It is the sequence of feelings - hesitation, regret, frustration - more than anything that drives the counter-trend trades.


In short, this is using internal emotional/feeling data in a couple of productive ways. Spending time with it will actually have a greater payoff than obsessing over the charts.


This was clearly demonstrated today in the SPY as we had another day where short selling didn't follow through and was simply fuel to the fire. One quote sings true in my thoughts day in and day out in this environment and that is that in a bullish market investors climb a wall of fear.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

The financials continued to demonstrate slight strength yesterday and that allowed the SPY slightly move higher on on volume less than the two days, it feels like this market is crawling its way up at the moment. I wont attempt to pick a top, I will remain very cautious at this price action and will trade only the best setups in the light of SPY demonstrating weakening signs day in and day out.

Longs:

COF
IAG
TOL
VLO
COH
HD
TRV
HON
CAT
MET
SLB

Breakouts:

LEN>20.70
WFC>34.25
BA>73.00
DD>(ID)
CIEN(ID)
JPM>46.00

Shorts:

CELG
ABT

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

OMC


Heres a stock that I will definately keep an eye on today. It is technically perfect and poised for a breakout.

MET

Heres a chart of on of the cleanest breakouts I've seen in a while. This stock rallied prior to earnings which will be on the 9th of February.

Tuesdays Game Plan

Yesterday the markets continued to grind up on low volume. The most significant sector yesterday was the financials, the strength in financials followed by the strength in technology the day before are strong factors indicating that the bullish run is still on. I will be very cautious though, as this move has been on below average volume in both sectors. This grind up will sooner or later run out of gas and I dont want to be overly exposed when that happens.

Longs:

MET
COH
MS
NOV
XOM
TJX
CIEN

Breakouts:

JPM> 46.00
COF>50.00
NTAP>59.80
COST (ID)
TRV>57.60
AMGN<54.75

Shorts:

SNDK
CELG

Monday, February 7, 2011


The market continued to grind up on friday after it slightly sold off in the morning. The SMH sector is what lifted the S&P on Friday. This market is dangerously high but what I have in mind is the quote that a bull market climbs a wall of worries. my bias remains long, I will continue to pay attention to the OIH sector today along with technology.




Longs:

OMC (Not in list Average Volume: 2 million shares. ATR: .85)
JNPR
AET
CIEN
ALTR
DD
COST
SLB
XOM

Breakouts:

KLAC>46.00
TRV>57.60
TJX(ID)
MS>30.20
STI(ID)

Shorts:

ABT
SNDK

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Thursdays Game Plan

The SPY paused on below average volume yesterday above the key 130 level and held. The day was very narrow and volume was below average possibly signaling a lack of selling during yesterdays session. As long as 130 holds I remain bullish. However, if it fails then I might short really weak stocks or stand aside and do nothing. I will continue to pay attention to the OIH sector, it rallied on below average volume yesterday but remains on of the strongest sectors. I also expect to possibly see choppy action today ahead of the NFP release tomorrow.

Longs:

NVDA
HAL
DIS
HON
HPQ
DD
XOM
JPM

Shorts:

JNJ
ANF
M

Breakouts:

COF (id)

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Wednesdays Game Plan

The DOW breach the 12000 level yesterday after the market saw broad based bullish buying yesterday. The SPY also took out the key 113 level after the bulls regained shrugged off the news on Egypt. Today I will continue to keep an eye on Oil and financial stocks. Everyone is bullish at the moment and the market also took out key levels yesterday, if the market fails above these levels then that is a bearish sign. I will be cautious today as I have been burnt in the past when sentiment was at extremes.




Longs:



ALTR

WAG

EBAY

XOM

COF

ORCL

TXN

USB

CHK

JPM

DD

HPQ



Breakouts:



BMY< 25.10

URBN<33.60

DIS>40.00

NVDA



Shorts:



SNDK

CELG

M







Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Tuesdays Game Plan

The oil and energy accompanied by the financials sectors yesterday helped the SPY hold up after the sell off on Friday. The up day yesterday which was also an inside day was on below average volume, this sign is bearish but isnt enough to change the trend. The market is still in an uptrend with no real evidence to to think otherwise. Oil stocks continue to demonstrate strength.

Longs:

CHK
NOV
SLB
HAL
XOM
EMC
DD

Shorts:

AVP
MRK
URBN
JNJ
ABT
BMY

Breakouts:

VLO>26.00
NEM<54.30
COF
AEM<67.00