Friday, September 30, 2011

Longs: ALTR (33.00), SNDK (40.00), UNH (45.50), SLW (30.00), COST (82.00), COF (40.00), AXP (45.50)

Breakouts: VLO<18.00, MCD>91.00, PEP>63.50, XOM>75.00, DPS>38.50,

Notes:

Just got back from my fathers funeral, I am not in the zone yet. Will trade tier 1 at most, and will avoid the market if I dont find a read.

SPY in the middle of no where doing nothing and will probably open lower making my saturation longs my prefered play for the day.

Eur and AUD under selling pressure with the AUD/USD at a key support level at .9700 where if broken could find accelerated selling.

Strongest sector this week was the financials despite negative news on MS. The weakest was the services and Technology sector.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: DD (40.00),

Shorts:SWN<34.00, PM, COH (57.00, 200 SMA & 50 SMA), Breakouts: XRT>47.00, EEM>36.00, QQQ>54.50, GG<45.00, KO>68.00, VLO (IDB R=19.00 S=18.30), JDSU (IDB R=11.75 S=11.20), UTX (IDB R=69.75 S=69.30), TWC>66.50, CIEN>11.50, ALTR>35.75,

Notes:

If SPY and the QQQ break above their 2 day highs, I expect them to fill the gap or at least at a minimum 50% of the gap.

Gold got slamed as expected after the breakdown - 1550 is the next level to watch out for to the down side.

COH saturation play is pretty clean.

Many of the breakouts should be treated with extreme caution, as the gap might not fill completely. Lowering tier size and booking momentum will be my prefered tactic for this environment.

The market open again will play a huge role in determining price action and wheere prices would probably go.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: DOW (22.50), UTX, HON (42.00), ALTR, WFC, GG (47.00), WLP (63.00),

Breakouts: AET<37.50, ABT>51.00 (HBO gapfill), DPS>38.50, SWN<34.00, CHK (27.00), COST>83.50

Notes:

Any longs should be with a confirmed bottom

Trade less size and book into momentum will be my tactic for the day

It is Friday, a higher open in the SPY will probably signal a gap fill day

DOW at yearly support

UTX is at serious suppot, weekly 200 SMA and weekly support.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs:JDSU, UNH (48.00), SBUX, SNDK (42.50)

Breakouts: DOW<25.50, C<25.50, DD<43.50, MCD<87.50,

Shorts: HAL, JPM, MS

Notes:

OIH, XLE, XOP was pummeled yesterday - XLK, QQQ, SMH were the ones that held up the best and demonstrated clear relative strength

XLF and XLB were also very weak yesterday

I should have wait till after the FOMC statement to trade aggressively yesterday

Unemployment claims today

TLT had a massive up day yesterday after the fed confirmed that they would be buying bonds instead of shorter term debt instruments

In order to catch these falling knives and play them long, I HAVE to see it bottom

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Longs: VLO (21.00)

Breakouts:EEM<39.00, XLP>41.00, TWC>66.50, UNH<39.50 (HBO), wag>37.50, pep<60.00, HAL<37.50, EBAY<37.40, UAL (IDB R=21.00 S=20.50)

Shorts: NVDA

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: CIEN (12.50), HAL (38.00),

Breakouts: EEM<39.00, XRT>50.50, HON>48.00, WAG>37.50, TJX>57.50, QCOM>54.00, TWC>66.00, XOM>74.75, PCAR>39.00, UNH (IDB R=50.00 S=49.50)

Notes:

Not many setups in my gameplan today due to the fact that the market is very choppy and indecisive.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: JDSU (13.00)

Breakouts: EBAY>35.00, TJX>57.50, TRV> 51.00, KSS>48.50, XOM>74.75, SBUX>39.50, COH (IDB R=60.00 S= 58.70), SNDK (IDB R=43.50 S= 42.30), PCAR>39.00, WAG>37.50, BBY>26.00, TWC>66.00

Shorts: TJX (57.50), DOW (28.50), AXP (50.50), COST (85.00), SWN (39.50 Megaphone), WLP (68.00), NEM (66.50)

Notes:

My favorite plays: COH, NEM, SNDK, SBUX

Friday, September 16, 2011

Fridays Gameplan

Breakouts: BYY (26.00), PCAR>39.00, XOM>74.50, SBUX>39.50, JDSU>13.75, XRT>50.25, XOP>54.00

Shorts: BBY (26.00), ALTR (38.50 & 50 SMA), WAG (37.50)

Notes:

QQQ at 200 SMA and is the strongest out of the SPY and DIA.

Yesterdays up move was on ascending volume suggesting that the upmove could continue before any reversal takes place.

Todays is options expiry and the 30th will be quaterly expiry. Choppy market expect today.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: GG (51.00)

Breakouts: JDSU>13.85, EBAY>31.00, ALTR>37.50, JNPR>22.00, AET>41.00, SLW (IDB S=38.25 R=39.25)

Shorts: UAL (20.50), QCOM (53.50), COH (58.00)

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Wednesdays Game Plan

Longs: UAL, GG (51.50 50 DMA)

Breakouts: UNH>48.50, COH>57.00 (200 DMA), QCOM>53.00, JNJ<62.50, MCD>86.50, VLO (IDB S=21.80, R=22.50)

Shorts: CIEN (14.00 & 50 DMA), AET (51.00), WLP (66.50 & 50 DMA), KLAC (38.25 & 50 DMA), SNDK (41.00), ALTR (37.50), COST (81.00 & H&S Pattern hourly)

Notes:

Saturation short seem to be the play today, after the market rallied for the past two days, yesterday we rallied on less volume when compared to yesterday which tells me that this move is running out of fuel. A higher open would be nice today as it would make it perfect to sell these stocks short, a lower open however, followed by a rally could be more tricky making it possible for the market to go in either direction. Yesterdays high in the case of a lower open should prove to be the pivotal point.

Key economic indicators at 4:30 could push the market higher or lower premarket.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Tuesday Gameplan

Breakouts: ALTR > 36.10, KLAC>36.50, COH > 55.50 (Wedge), MCD> (86.50, HBO & Gap fill), DD<44.00, EBAY>29.50

Notes:

Tech strongest sectro the QQQ leading
Difficult to find orderflow longs or shorts in this choppy environment, HBO is my prefered tactic for this market
ALTR
Today is setting up to be a choppy day, I will continue to book into momentum in these conditions.

Saturday, September 10, 2011


Longs: COG (69.50), C (26.50), VAR (51.50), JDSU (12.00), MS (15.00), PEP (double bottom first), JNJ (63.25),

Breakouts: HAL< (39.30), AXP< (47.00), SWN< (35.50), PM< (64.50 & 200SMA), DOW< (25.50 5 touches on support), MS < (15.25), ETN (38.00), SNDK<38.75

Notes:

I have no clue as to what will work out from my longs and breakdowns, what is clear is that we are in a downtrend, so breakdowns are more likely, burst of momentum to the upside are also possible but in order for me to get long, I want to see a bottoming pattern before I attempt to catch a falling knife.

If JDSU can hold the $12.00 level then it would be interesting to trade it long.

SPY in an ascending channel despite negative events taking place, price closed at the support trend line after it bounced right off of it. Given these market conditions, I expect to see a gap on Monday in either direction, should the SPY open below the trend line then I expect 114.50 to be tested and should it open above Fridays close then I expect 115.50 to be tested. At this point, the market could accelerate in either direction on Monday, making it critical to prepare for the open adequately.

The Dow Jones Industrials DJIA is also at a critical level, 11000 were breached again on Friday. However, it had also been breached twice in the past month which was then resulted in strong buying. Buying could take place on Monday, but I consider that unlikely with the index looking like a steep head and shoulders pattern, the level to watch here is 10950.

QQQ the NASDAQ ETF is consolidating forming a wedge, a breakout in either direction is imminent, 52.75 is the level to watch for a breakdown and 54.75 is the level to watch for a breakout. The QQQ is the strongest out of the three indexes (S&P , DOW, NASDAQ).

As for individual sectors, the XLB will catch my attention on Monday with Dow Chemicals (DOW) being the main stock I'd be watching in that sector. 5 support touches in the stock market usually doesn't hold. This and the fact that the XLB broke down from its wedge and is pausing right above the key 33.00 level, which if broken down, should bring down the entire sector with it.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: JDSU (50 DMA confluence with flag resistance trendline confluence)

Breakouts: SNDK>38.00,AXP>50.00, SBUX>39.50, XOM>74.50

Shorts: MS (16.50), C (29.00), HON (48.00), UNH (48.00), COST (81.00 Fade), DD (48.00), WLP (64.50) & Deathcross, ABT (52.50)

Notes:

The market seems to be drying up on its up move, with the QQQ's and DIA rising at a slower pace than the SPY on declining below average volume. The SPY also climbed on below average volume and out performed the duo due to the strong day in the financial and energy sector yesterday, both being on average volume. XLV the healthcare ETF has some serious resistance (50 & 200) DMA and advanced on below average volume should merit some attention today, however, should this market sink, XLV is not the best sector to short due to its defensive nature.

The open will be crucial today, the market will do one of several things, it will either open higher and come in, or open inside yesterday and attempt to take out the highs and fail, if it succeeds I dont expect the move to continue and if it does continue in the same manner as the previous 2 days then to me the market is a sreaming short tomorrow. Other scenarios can occuer making premarket assessment crticial.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: AMGN

Breakouts: GG> 56.00, KO>70.00, PM>68.00 (HBO), DOW < 25.50, BBY<23.00, JPM>33.50 (HBO & Gap fill)

Notes:

Very few setups today as the market is becoming impossible to predict under the gappy conditions, I might stand aside today while this market does what it wants to do. A retracement seems most likely to continue, however, anything is possible.

SPY failed to take out lower trendlien support with the QQQ being the strongest followed by the SPY and DIA.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: PM (68.00), HON (45.50 & Double Bottom), KLAC (34.00 & Support), AKAM (20.00), PCAR (35.00),

Breakouts: TJX <52.00, JNJ<64.00 (Trendline break), VLO < 21.50 (Trendline and Support break)

Shorts: GG (55.50)

Notes:

Very choppy market at these levels making it almost impossible to predict the next direction in the market, but if I had to make a guess I would say south cause of the direction of the trend and the breakout in the TLT. (GLD) Gold very dangerous at these levels with R/R favoring the short side, volume has contracted and a gap up is expected which should be filled to the downside. SPY and DIA look like one big bearish flag thats about to crumble.

COG