Thursday's Game Plan

SPY: Gap up yesterday that held intraday, the levels I am watching are yesterdays high and low. Next I am looking at 132.00 as support and 133.50 as resistance. The DOW seems to be the strongest at the moment when compared to NASDAQ and the S&P 500.

Sectors: Retail, gold and the small cap stocks seem to be the strongest at the moment as demonstrated by the IWM.

Longs: UNH

Sat Longs: LEN

Breakouts: COF>53.00, EMC>27.50

ID: BBY

Shorts: -

Sat Shorts: JNPR, ANF,TSO, UNH, RCL, TWC

Wednesdays Game Plan

SPY: The day before yesterday was a day in the middle of no where and yesterday we had a day inside the day before reflecting the current indecision in the markets. The volume yesterday was way below average. We also saw a sell off on the finaly hour of the day where price almost tested the day befores low. Short term key levels in the SPY are 131.00 and 132.00. Overnight at the time of this writing, markets in Europe are choppy and currencies havent move much either. We have the consumer confidence report at 6:00 p.m GMT+4 today which might move the markets.

Sectors: Pretty mixed up, nothing demonstrated any clear order flow yesterday.

Longs: AXP, HON

Saturation Longs: IAG

Volatility: BBY, TSO

Breakout: TGT<49.50, CCL<38.10, RCL<40.50

Short: CHK, EBAY

Saturation Shorts: DANG

Testament

While trading the FX markets for the past 3 years I discovered several things about myself. First, that my trading niche was in equities, the US equities to be more specific. The FX market might be the biggest market out there but it doesn't have to be your arena. Being exposed to different markets reveals your niche. Not all markets are the same, FX has its own personality when compared to either futures or equities. It is critical that you identify what works for you in order to survive in trading.




Second, I discovered that like many members here that trading had enhanced my character in ways that wouldn't have been possible if I weren’t exposed to the markets. The markets taught me to take responsibility for my actions; it also transformed my mindset which automatically changed my character. I am no where near the person I was 3 years ago, the mindset transformation alone was worth the journey.



Third, market preparation is everything in trading. With market preparation came conviction which made entries, exits and re-entries seem effortless. Preparation has also removed all the anxiety and discretion from my trading. Having a solid plan is critical to long term survival and having a game plan for the day is critical for long term survival. I have come to learn through experience that the bigger the trader the more time he spent planning. I have a 14 page trading plan and I still feel it lacks a lot of the elements that would make it complete which brings me to my fourth point.



Fourth, trading taught me that one never stops learning and improving in the markets and in life. The moment one becomes closed minded and refuses to learn is the moment they stop developing. I have learnt that the markets never remain the same, if you fail to catch up, you will be left behind.



I could go on and on about how trading changed me, at the end all I can say is that I love trading which is a field that has given me so much to the extent that I am not it just for the money anymore.

Mondays Game Plan

SPY: Currently in no mans land, right in the middle of no where. Price on Friday closed in the middle of the previous range that it broke out from on a doji candle that reflected indecision. Main S/R levels to watch would be Friday's high and low of 131.87-130.89, should price breach any of these two levels we could see a momentum move. Assessing premarket developments prior to the open will be key in assessing the day ahead as the picture isn't clear at the moment.

Sectors: Like the SPY most sectors are all over the place, the only sector reflecting something is the energy sector with the XLE on the verge of making a 20 day breakout. Gold is currently giving mixed signals along with the financial and tech sector which makes this market a hard read.

Longs: WDC, SUN, AXP

Saturation Longs: IAG

Breakouts: VLO> 30.50, TSO>27.00, WLP>69.50, DPS>38.25, CCL(ID), ADSK(ID), EMC>27.50, COF>53.00

Shorts: WAG

Saturation Shorts: ALTR, COF

Friday's Game Plan

SPY:The SPY held and closed above the 129.50 - 130.00 zone and held up, this confirms that the ETF is back into the range it broke out of on the 15th. My bias is bullish as long as we hold above. A choppy environment is to be expect though.

Sectors: The strongest sector yesterday was technology with the SMH being the strongest ETF in my watchlist followed by the QQQ's which is the NASDAQ ETf. The Weakest sectors yesterday were commodities with oil, gold and silver all taking a hit, my saturation shorts on gold stocks worked out nicely yesterday but unfortunately I didn't take them as they occured during lunch. A period that I don't usually trade.  The financial sector ETF, the XLF formed another bullish U-Turn candle pattern yesterday which makes it two in a row and also forms a higher low. These are both bullish signs that could play out today if price goes above 16.35.

Longs: EBAY,PM,IAG

Saturation Longs CCL

Breakouts: ADSK>44.50, WDC>36.50, TJX>51.00,CHK(ID)

Saturation Shorts: JDSU, CIEN, SBUX,COP - (These saturation plays will depend on wether RIMM's earnungs affect the technology sector, If I get a higher opening I might consider shorts)

Thursday's Game Plan

SPY: Prices gapped lower then rallied during yesterdays session taking out and holding above the pivotal 125.50 level. The next major level ot watch will be the 130 level and whether the SPY holds above it or fails below it. volume on the previous days has been below average signaling indecision. My bias on this market is neutral as it could easily go either way. I plan to book profits when I come across them as continuation in minimal under such circumstances.

Sectors: The strongest sectors yesterday was the commodities sector which was led by the gold and silver industry. SMH was also strong yesterday, this suggests that some of the tech stocks at this point might be oversold which could prove to be good saturation plays. The financial sector also caught my attention yesterday as they rallied in the afternoon session after selling off in the morning to close positive for the day, if buying continues in financials today then we could have an up day in the SPY today.

Longs: SLW, SBUX, IAG,GG,ALTR,SUN

Saturation longs: JDSU,CIEN,TGT,CCL,UAL

Breakouts: CDE>35.50, VLO>29.00,RCL<40.50

Shorts:

Saturation shorts: SLW,GG,KO,SWN,HPQ,PM

Wednesdays Game Plan

SPY: Nothing much has changed in the SPY, 129.50 remains the key level to watch.

Sectors: Unchanged from prior day before yesterday.

Longs:

SBUX: as long as 34.75 holds.
STJ
SLW

Saturation Longs:

NVDA
JDSU
JNPR
CIEN

Breakouts:

TSO>26.00
VLO (ID) 28.40
CHK(ID)

Shorts:

CCL
MS
AET
STT
ORCL

Saturation Shorts:

NEM
COST
PM
IAG

Tuesday's Game Plan

SPY: The key level I am watching in the SPY is the 129.50 level and whether it holds. Yesterday we say an up gap day that was on below average volume, not a very bullish sign. If the market fails to hold above the 129.50 level my bias will be bearish for the day as I expect the market to cover yesterdays gap and head south.

ETF: The strongest sectors yesterday were commodities as they kept the market up after the gap. Technology was also strong and held well during the day, my only concern with the rally was the weakness demonstrated by the financials which could halt the market rise today.


Breakouts:

TSO<26.00
SUN>44.50
JDSU (ID)
CNX(ID)
CHK(ID)
SBUX(ID)
NVDA(ID)



Shorts:

ORCL
AU

Saturation shorts:


SLW
CDE
DOW
HON
KO
MET
SWN

Mondays Game Plan

On Friday, the SPY opened higher and sold off. The levels in the SPY that I will watch are 128.85 - 129.50 to act as resistance and 125.50 - 126.00 as support. My bias is remains bearish after prices closed below 129.50 and will remain so until the level is taken out. The weakest sector on Friday was the energy and oil sectors along with utilities. The strongest was silver. It is important to note that the IWM ETF closed back inside range for the past 2 months after it failed to hold below it with the rest of the market. If it continues to hold above then I expect to see strength in todays market as the IWM has usually leds the SPY.

Longs:

SWN

Breakouts:

SLW>40.70
DIS<40.45
LOW(ID)
XOM<79.00
SUN>44.50

Shorts:

HPQ
AET
PCAR
RTN<49.50
JNPR
LVS
CIEN

An inside day yesterday in the SPY as the market closed at almost the same place where it opened. We have options expiration today which could cause volatility. The levels that I am watching in the SPY are 128.50 and 127.00, a break in either direction could signal the direction for the day.

Longs:

CNX

Breakouts:

SUN>44.50
EXPE>22.00
MET(ID)
SBUX(ID)
COF(ID)
COH(ID)
RTN<49.50
ANF<53.00
JNPR<40.50
UAL<22.00

Shorts:

INTU
TWC
JDSU

Thursday's Game Plan

The market continued to hold below previous key support levels, thus the continued weakness in the market. The SPY sold off on major volume yesterday, 467 million shares which is more than double the average volume of the SPY. Yesterday's low is the new key support level in the market and should we fail to breach and hold below it and head above 129.50 then I expect an extended box to form between 134.50-125.00. This being said, I will remain in momentum mode, booking profits as I come across them. Technology was the weakest sector yesterday as the QQQQ sold off along with oil. The strongest sectors yesterday were the retailers and healthcare sectors.


Longs:

SWN

Breakouts:

CHK>36.00
CNX>54.00
CCL(ID)
COF(ID)
SBUX(ID)

Shorts:

PEP
HPQ
KO
COST
XOM
AET
AU

Breakdowns:

HAL<42.50
RTN<49.50

Wednesdays Game Plan

Yesterday, the market happed down and attempted to retrace back into the previous range but failed. To me, the rally yesterday looked like short covering took place and unless we are able to breach back into the 129.50 area we remain down. I expect us to see a choppy day today unless we trade below 126.60 and there for my expectation remains at a minimum booking my profits into momentum.

Longs:

COF
WLP
CHK
SBUX>36.00
TRV

Breakdowns: HPQ<40.50

Shorts:

JNJ
DOW<35
INTC
USB
HD

Tuesday's Game Plan

We are surely going to gap lower today after the selloff in global equities, the Nikkei crashed 10.5% in the aftermath of the earthquake. Equities in Europe also sold sold soon after the Nikkei sell off. Premarket and at the time of this writing the S&P 500 futures are down -2.4%. The first thing I will be looking at today is the gap in the SPY, after the opening range I want to see thee SPY hold 129.50 as a mimimum for me to start selling agressively. If the SPY fails to breach this level then I expect to see a broadbased sell off. Either way, I expect to see a broadbased move today as volatility will surely be present due to the additional factor of the FOMC statement today at 10:15 p.m Oman time (GMT+4). Today could be incredibly difficult or easy to trade, I plan to hold on to ideas that work out as I expect to see continuation today.

Longs:

TSO
CHK
VLO
GG
SLW
PM

Breakouts:

PEP>65.00
SUN>44.50
XOM(ID)
COF(ID) (50.00-48.00)
SLW(ID)
KLAC(ID)
TJX(ID)

Shorts:

HPQ< 41.00
CIEN
SBUX
NTAP

Mondays Game Plan

Geo political and natural disasters continue to take their toll on the market from last week on global equities, other than that we have no significant news reports coming out today. The SPY on the other hand held support on Friday and failed to breach its key level, I see that as bullish till proven otherwise. The next thing I want to see in the SPY is a breach of the 131.00 level; if it is breach then I see room to the upside with 133.00 as next resistance. To the down side, the 129.50 level is key; if it is to be breach then I expect to see broad based selling. On a side note, the weakest industry last week was the SMH industry. If weakness persists in this industry than it could burden the market as the SMH is a major part of the technology sector and technology plays a major role on the market and SPY. The strongest sector was Major Airlines preceded by Specialty Eateries. As for the month, Silver and Long-Term Care Facilities industries are the strongest.
We are still in a balancing environment here, I will remain cautious here by setting up a plan that fits my risk parameters for the day and by picking the best stocks under this environment. I also plan on booking into momentum going into today’s session. In this market its either grab what you have or wait for it to be taken from you.

Longs:
 
CIEN>25.00
SLW>42.30
CHK>33.00
WLP
TRV
 
Breakouts:
 
RTN>52.50
PEP> 64.75
ABT>49.00
ALTR(ID)
HON(ID)
AKAM(ID)
 
Shorts:
 
EBAY
GLW
ORCL<31.50
TXN<34.00

Friday's Game Plan

Pre-market, markets world wide have sold off along with the EUR/USD and other currencies on news of a major earthquake in japan. The SPY sold off yesterday and closed right above its key level of 129.70 after a choppy day yesterday. If the market gaps down today I will be looking for it to hold below support to find any  continuation before initiating positions. The opening range will be crucial to assess market direction today.

Longs:

KSS: as long as it stays above 54.80
WLP

Breakouts:

JCP>37.50
CVS>34.20
JCP>37.50
HAL<43.50
ORCL<31.50
COF<47.80
UNH(ID)

Shorts:

BK
VLO
CIEN
HIG
QCOM

Importance of Attitude

The Man Who Thinks He Can




If you think you are beaten, you are;

If you think you dare not, you don’t!

If you’d like to win, but think you can’t,

It’s almost a cinch that you won’t.



If you think you’ll lose, you’re lost

For out in the world we find

Success begins with a fellow’s will;

It’s all in the state of mind!



If you think you’re outclassed, you are;

You’ve got to think high to rise.

You’ve got to be sure of yourself

Before you can win the prize.



Life’s battles don’t always go

To the strongest or fastest man;

But sooner or later the man who wins

Is the man who thinks he can!



- Walter D. Wintle

Thursday's Game Plan

Yesterday we had another inside day which which was also inside the day before, this will lead to volatility in either direction as contraction leads to volatility and volatility leads to contraction. The levels that I watch in the SPY are 130.00-129.70 as support and 133.00-134.70 as resistance. Overseas, markets sold off for various reason including Libya and Spains downgrage. As for sectors, the only thing to note from yesterday was the weakness demonstrated by the SMH sector as it took out its key support level at 34.50. If price hold below that level then I expect to see continuation to the downside, this in return could have a chain reaction affecting the QQQQ and SPY by not allowing it to move higher. The strongest sector yesterday was the XLU or utlilities sector. This reflects investors inconfidence at the moment in investing in more risky assets, the XLU along with the XLV or healthcare sector remains in play until the market paints a clear picture and demonstrates which direction it wants to head in.

Longs:

CHK: Above yesterday
RTN:As long as it stays above 52.50
A
ABT
HRB

Breakouts:

JCP>37.50
KSS>56.00
HD>37.85
WLP>70 (long term resistance at this level)
UNH>44.50
KO>65.90
LVS<41.70
AEM<67.00

Shorts:

NVDA: Below yesterday
CIEN: Has to hold below 24.80
CREE

Wednesdays Game Plan

Yesterday the market rallied and formed an inside day, the levels in the SPY remain the same and any breach above or below them should set the tone for the upcoming move. The strongest sector yesterday was the financial sector and the weakest was commodities and the SMH sector. The fact that technology and the SMH were strong yesterday hindered the rally, this is what usually happens when the market is in balance.



Longs:

MMM
KLAC
JPM
SLW

Breakouts:

KO>65.90
WDC>36.80
DOW>39.00
CDE>35.50
RTN>52.50
JNPR>45.00
BIIB>72.00

Breakdowns:

LVS<42.00
ADSK<39.50

Inside days:

ADM(ID)
WLP(ID)
ABT(ID) at resistance
A(ID)
ALTR(ID)

Shorts:

NVDA
CIEN
JDSU

Tuesday's Game Plan

The SPY sold off again yesterday but still remains in balance as it is yet to clear its key levels of 131.45-135.00. The entire market sold off yesterday along with commodities, gold and silver gapped higher but failed to hold as they both came in. The XLF is on the verge of a breakdown signaling that the financial sector could be weak and the SMH sector was the weakest sector yesterday among the sectors I follow. The picture looks gloomy but as of yesterday the market hasn't confirmed a direction yet. Thus I remain in momentum mode booking my profits more agressively once I have them. There aren't any major news releases today.

Longs:

HK
SLW
SD
ARUN

Breakouts:

KK>66.00
A(ID)
JNPR>44.60
ABT(ID)
COF<47.80
LVS<41.70

Shorts:

BK
NEM
HPQ
PCAR
AKAM
HIG

Mondays Game Plan

On Friday the market sold off during the first few hours and then recovered some of the losses during the last hours of tradng. Little has change in the market, the key levels in the SPY remain intact and the market remains in balance. The key levels are 134.70 to the top side and 129.75 to the bottom side. As long as we remain in between those levels I remain in momentum  mode, booking profits more aggressively. Looking at the strongest sector from last week, Silver was the strongest followed by the Healthcare sector, and as for the weakest Major Airlines was the weakest.

Longs:

ALTR
JDSU>29.00
GG
SLW
ABT
UNH
WLP
TRV

Breakouts:

KLAC
JNJ>61.50
EMC>27.40
CHK(ID)
NVDA(ID)
KO>66.00
TWC>72.50
COF<48.00
HPQ<42.00
BK<29.90

Shorts:

UAL

Yesterday, we saw a broad based rally in all sectors of the market. The rally in the SPY occured in its range, we didn't clear any levels and that can cause concern. Ths market is still in balance and could easily head either way, the levels that I am watching in the SPY are 133.70 & 134.70 as resistance and 131.80, 130.35 & 129.70.The strongest sector yesterday was health care as reflected by XLV.  The SMH sector was also strong as it tested resistance yesterday. My tactics for the haven't changed, we are still in balance mode which prompts me to book my profits into momentum and trade only my best ideas.

LONGS:

ALTR
UNH
HAL
COP
SLW
GG

BREAKOUTS:

TWC>72.50
EMC>27.40
COF<47.80(50SMA)
KO>65.90
ABT>48.80

SHORTS:

STT
WMT
NVDA

Yesterday we had a pretty flat day on above average volume, a possible higher low might have formed in the SPY and if that occured than the market should rally today. Other than the higher low, we still remain in balance till the market breaks out of either 134.70 or 129.70.The fact that markets world wide rallied overnight could cause us to an up day today.
The strongest sector yesterday was the technology sector, at this given time there isn't any clear order flow in any sector except for commodities which also isnt very clear at the moment. In this environment I will continue to book into momentum and re-enter on good ideas for as long as I have to.

Longs:

KLAC
ALTR
ANF
CHK
GG
XOM
HAL
SLW

Breakouts:

UNH>44.00
TJX>51.00
CDE(ID)
COP>79.00
IAG>22.34
BK<30.00
NEM<54.00

Shorts:

STI
PCAR
AMGN
UAL
HIG

Wednesday's Game Plan

Yesterday we had a broadbased sell off in the markets, the level that I will be looking to act as support today will be 130.00 in the SPY. If prices breach this level, I expect to see more selling take place. The strongest sectors yesterday were the gold and silver sectors, where both of them made new highs. I will continue to look at gold stocks as possible longs today. The weakest sector yesterday was the financial sector, I will be watching the XLF today and its key level of 16.35 to act as support. If that level is breached then I expected to see further selling in the sector. As mentioned in previous posts, I guage market weakness or strength through assessing both the strength of the tech and financial sectors. Tech is also weak and the XLK is about to breach its key level of 25.80. The market is currently in a transitionary process, volatility could be present in either direction today and until the market proves and clearly reflects its direction, I will be looking to book into momentum.

Longs

GG
SLW
CNQ
JDSU

Breakouts:

ANF>58.50
BBY
BK<29.88
AXP<43.00
BA<69.00
ORCL<31.60
LVS<41.70

Shorts:

AMGN
WMT
TGT
HPQ
BRCM
USB
PCAR
STI
MS
WDC
UAL

CDE - Silver Stock

Heres another example of a clean breakout that reflected orderflow in one direction.

Tuesday's Game Plan

My levels from yesterday haven't changed in the SPY, I am still looking at 134.69 as resistance and 129.70 as support. Gold continued to surge over night making gold stocks very attractive today along with the energy sector. The SMH sector failed to rally yesterday was the weakest sector in the market, I will be looking to see if it persists today. The SMH sector is a part of the tech sector and if it continues to be weak, it could burden the market sending it down. The financial sector is still in no mans land here, reflecting no direction. At this stage, the XLF (financial ETF) has no order flow in one direction which in return reflects a balance in both buyers and seller.

Longs:

CDE
SLW
GG
CVX
DD
HON
QCOM
TWX
KLAC
HAL

Breakouts:

JNJ>61.80
COST>75.50
EMC>27.30
BK<30

AKAM<37.00
Shorts:

WMT
TGT
MGM
NTAP
BRCM

A Chart That Gets Me Excited - JNJ

Heres an intraday chart of Johnson and Johnson that performed a textbook breakout with all the characteristics that I look for in a breakout. Enjoy!