Mondays Gameplan

Longs: ESRX (55.00),

Breakouts: WDC<37.00, KLAC<51.25, POT<42.25, CREE>31.25, M>41.25,

Volatility: SLW (30.50 30.00),

Shorts: JCP (37.00), A (42.75), PCAR (42.75), MCD (97.50), SWN (30.50),

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: COST (86.00), TJX (40.00), KLAC (51.25), COH (SDP).

Breakouts: LEN<24.50, ko>74.50, TGT<56.25, M<38.50, POT<42.50, TIF<65.50

Volatility: CREE (30.00 29.40), SLW (28.85, 28.25), SNDK (36.65, 36.25)

Shorts: BAX (55.00), TRV (64.00), XOM (86.50)

Notes:

Today is the Fed day, I will likely do nothing until we have that clear.

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: JNPR (20.00),

Breakouts: AKAM>39.00, XOM>86.00, TIF>67.50, UNH>59.50, KO>74.25, TGT<56.20, POT<42.50, LEN<24.50,

Volatility: YUM (73.85 72.85), MCD (96.00 94.85),

Notes:

JNPR 4 down days in a row.

SPY key level (135.75) , IWM  (78.00),

Key Inflection Levels (GLD, OIH, UUP, TLT, UUP)

Market at key inflection levels. Heres a few charts for you to decide for yourself the upcoming market direction.

SPY vs GLD

SPY vs OIH

SPY vs UUP

SPY vs TLT

Shanghai Index Update

Following on my previous Shanghai Index, the index has continued to outperform to the upside. I remain bullish on Chinese equities and the next line in the sand to watch would be the previous high at 2480. The index has move 50 points since I last wrote about it when it was at 2359.

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: SNDK (SDP), C  (33.80), BRCM (34.50), MCP (29.50), M (38.80), AKAM (37.00), FCX (37.50)

Breakouts: MS<17.20, BBY<21.25, JCP<33.00, KO>74.50, A<41.75

Volatility: BAX (54.75 53.75), SBUX (60.00 59.00), CREE (30.80 30.00), TIF (67.50 65.50)

Shorts: ALTR (SDP), DOW (35.50)

Notes:

I have a ton of setups for Monday, should be careful to NOT overtrade and be as selective as possible.

GLD set to explode (160.00 159.00). GDX heading south.

Very obvious upthrust in OIH and XLE.

QQQ & AAPL look like they want to saturate.

Shanghai Composite still rallying after I wrote this.

IYR about to breakout (XHB).

UUP<21.90 is bearish for the dollar and bullish for stocks.

TLT>117.50  is bullish treasuries.

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: TRV (SDP), UNH (SDP),

Breakouts: MS<17.30, WDC>43.00, POT<42.50, JPM<42.75, NEM<47.50, BAX<54.00, TIF<65.75, A<41.75, TGT<56.25, JNPR<20.80, NVLS<46.00, LEN<24.50

Volatility: MOS (51.00 50.00)

Notes:

Options expiry.

Thursdays Gameplan

Breakouts: CVX>104.00, DD>53.75, ABX<40.75, X>29.50, MS<17.25, JPM<42.75, GG<40.50,  MCP<31.75,

Volatility: KSS (R=51.50 S=51.00), HON (R=59.00 S=58.25), MOS (R=51.00 S=50.25), A (R=42.75 S=42.00), NTAP (R=40.50 S=39.75) , SWN (R= 28.30 S=27.90)

Shorts: XOM (86.00)

Notes:

UUP consolidating, FXE poised for a breakdown below 129.50, TLT key level 117.50 any breakout could signal higher prices, GDX holding below its broken trendline, SPY in the middle of nowhere.

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: SBUX (58.50)

Breakouts:CREE>32.50, FCX>38.00, KO>74.25, MCP>31.30, DD>54.00, NEN<48.00

Volatility: COP (R=74.75 S=74.25) BBY (R=22.00 S=21.75)

Shorts: XOM (85.50), UAL (22.75)

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs:  mcd (96.00), wlp (68.50),hal (32.00), vlo (23.25), nvls (47.00)

Breakouts: ms<12.25, jpm<42.75, pot<42.50, fdx<87.75, coh<73.00, a<41.75, cree>32.50

A Warning Sign in Gold (GLD)

A death cross is about to form in the GLD, I dont trade this signal exclusively but I never the less watch it. Thing's could get ugly if it follows through for the bulls. A death cross occurs when the long term moving average typically the 200 SMA crosses the short term moving average which is typically the 50 SMA.

Shanghai Index

Meanwhile, as the SPY begins to enter a consolidation phase, chinese equities are begining to look interesting. Especially after the positive fundamentals coming out of there after the chinese stimulus started to kick into gear.

Technically, the weekly trendline was broken and was perfectly tested. A move above 2,500 could signal the begining of a bull market in chinese equities. I will be following this very closely from here on.

The FXI (Chinese ETF) has also outperformed all other major global markets last week which is another sign that things aren't as bad as some people think. As always, wait for confirmation, I wont get bullish until 2500 is breached.





Technology Sector Update (QQQ, AAPL, SNDK & A)

The trend is your friend, until it bends. The tech sector has already bended, as shown by QQQ (The Nasdaq ETF), which is considered to be a good indicator of the technology sector. This was confirmed by non-other than the mammoth AAPL (Apple), which bended and broke its trend line on above average volume.


Should Apple sell off, panic should creep into the sector but I expect buying to come back in at some point. This should mark the beginning of a consolidation phase. Choppy price action is to be expected, a full blown reversal in price is unlikely.
The warning signs to AAPL and the tech sector came in a while ago, after SNDK (Sandisk) crashed down with a massive gap to trade below its 200 SMA and break below resistance, the news release that triggered this selling can be found here. This gap was followed by selling which sent the stock another $5 down. Again, this was just a warning sign, not an invitation to sell, the stock is bound to bounce sooner rather than later. If you caught the move when it broke below its 200 SMA and resistance, well done!


One of the stocks on my radar for this move is A (Agilent Technologies), I am waiting for a breakdown below support, the same level has been tested 4 times, a breakdown at this point seem to be imminent with a lot of room to go, the next support level is at 40.50, then at 39.00 where the 200 SMA resides.  


Again, this isn't an invitation to sell, selling short is a difficult game to master, short covering rallies take out even the best traders due to the short reversal nature of the move. Moves down don't go smoothly, their usually highly intense bumpy moves. That’s where position sizing comes into play, you have to size it appropriately as to not get shaken out.

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: MCD (97.00)

Breakouts:COH<73.00, COP<73.50M POT<42.25, FDX<87 .70, A<41.75, CREE>32.50, MS<17.25

Volatility: AET (48.50 47.75), PCAR (43.20 42.60)

Shorts: ADSK (41.50), AKAM (36.75)

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: HON (SDP)

Breakouts: CREE>32.75

Volatility: AET (48.50 47.50), NTAP (41.25 40.75), CELG (78.25 79.00)

Shorts: LEN (26.50), ALTR (38.75), NVLS (48.65), JPM (45.00), AKAM (36.75)

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: WLP (59.50), AET (67.50), WDC (38.00), COP (63.50), PCAR (41.75), NTAP (40.50), MCP (31.50). Breakouts: MS<17.25, COH<73.00, A<42.00, GG<40.50 Volatility: TIF (67.75 66.25)

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: KO (72.00), LMT (87.50), WLP (69.00), JCP (33.00), PCAR (34.00), POT (42.25). Breakouts: GG>41.75, A<41.75, COH<73.00, MS<17.25. Shorts: XOM (SDP), BBY (SDP).

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: SLW (31.00), CDE (21.75), POT (44.00), DOW (32.25), JCP (33.00), CREE (28.50) Breakouts: MCP>35.50, TRV<58.00, FDX<88.00, HON (57.50) Volatility: KO (73.10 72.75), YUM (69.75 70.50), ADSK (41.00 40.50),DIS (42.25 42.00)

Monday's Gameplan

Longs: ABX (40.50), CDE (22.00), SNDK (44.00), SLW (31.00), MS (18.25). Breakouts: pcar<45.50, AKAM<36.00, POT<45.00, HUM>92.50. Volatility: AET (49.70 49.20), CREE (30.00 29.30), UNH (59.20 58.60), FDX (90.50 90.00). Notes: Both longs in gold miners are RDR

Thursday's Gameplan

Longs: COST (89.00), KLAC (53.00), ALTR (37.50), NVLS (47.50), C (34.50), CREE (29.25)

Breakouts:KSS>52.50, AKAM<36.00, CVX<105.00, POT<45.00

Shorts: SNDK (SDP)

Wednesdays Gameplan

Breakouts: WFC>34.50, DD>53.50, MOS<54.50, ALTR<38.50, ABX<42.50, CDE<23.00

Volatility: COF (56.50 55.75)

Shorts: KSS (52.00)

Notes:

Quants point to a choppy session.

ABX, MOS, cde breakdown.

COH (Short omg!)

GDX looks like the miners are finally about to crack.

XLF looks to be the savior in todays market as some stocks look poised for an up day.

Tuesdays Gameplan

Breakouts: POT>47.00, KSS>51.50, CDE>24.75, ABX>44.75, WFC>34.50, DD>53.50, MOS<54.50, XOM>87.00, CREE>32.75

Volatility: TGT (58.50 58.00)

Shorts: BHI (43.00)