Mondays Game Plan

Interesting day ahead, we are likely to find a gap today after the news on the weekend regarding Egypt. The weakest sector in the US markets last week was the financial sector and the strongest was conglomerates followed by industrial goods. The SPY sold off on Friday but that doesnt change the trend, I expect the market to continue to demonstrate weakness today but that doesn't change the fact that we are still in an upt trend. I will be open minded to both long and short ideas.

On a side note, the VXX also finaly popped on Friday after I had indicated in previous posts that buying had entered the volatility ETF. This could be taken as a sign that sellers are begining to gain control at least for the short term.

Longs:

HAL
NOV
COF
SLB

Breakouts:

SLB>88.00
DD>50.50
MO<23.70

Shorts:

MRK
JNJ
MCD
URBN
AVP
T
ANF
SNDK

Fridays Game Plan

The SPY continued to trade in a narrow range yesterday with the SMH and the financials being the strongest sectors. These two sectors in particular when moving in sync can move the market. If they continue to demonstrate strength today then I expect to see a broadbased up day. Gold continued to demonstrate weakness yesterday after the after the GLD declned -2.47%. Today we have the US GDP report which could move the market.

Longs:

UNH
ALTR
UAL
MS
AET
LOW
HD
BHI
EMC
TXN
XOM
HON
HAL
NOV

Breakouts:

HUM>61.35
MET>47.75
DD> 50.50
AEM<66.75

Shorts:

MRK
JNJ
GG
SLW

Thursday's Game Plan

Oil and the OIH ETF continued to demonstrate strength yesterday as gold also decided to rejoin the party. The surge in commodities yesterday was a sign that it was the sector thats in play at the moment. The SPY on the other hand demonstrated weakness yesterday after it was unable to close above the day befores range. This short term weakness is not to be taken seriously as the SPY is still in a strong uptrend.

Longs:

HAL
BHI
SLB
NOV
COP
LRCX
XOM

Breakouts:

UAL>26.50
DD>50.50
CHK>28.20
COH>55.20
MET>47.00

Shorts:

ANF
MRK
JNJ

Assessing Blame | The Big Picture

Assessing Blame The Big Picture

Yesterday we saw a choppy day in the SPY after it tried tried to sell off but failed to go below the day befores low. This is a bullish sign, should the SPY trade above its two day range, we should see ome agressive buying. Today we also have the FOMC meeting, I will be careful with my morning stock seletion today as I expect to see activity in the afternoon session today.

Longs:

BHI
EMC
WMT
TJX
UNH
HD
KLAC
AMAT
XOM
HON
COF
MS

Breakouts:

LRCX>53.00
DIS> 40.00

Shorts:

GG
URBN
SLW

Wednesdays Game Plan

The QQQQ and the semiconductors led the market rally today after the SPX closed near its highs for the day. Gold demonstrated weakness, current prices at the time of this writings are at $1325 per ounce. I will continue looking at the QQQQ's today after it lead the market yesterday. I will keep a particular eye on SMH. XLF was weak yesterday as it didnt participate in the market rally which could prove to be a weak sign today.

Longs:

NVDA
CIEN
KLAC
ADBE
TXN
HON
XOM
SLB

Breakouts:

LRCX
MS

Short:

GG
AUY

Monday's Game Plan

The SPY is in a range between 129.65 and 127.13 I will be watching those levels nad how price reacts around them. A break above would be a bullish sign and a break below would be bearish. Last week, almost all the sectors declined except for the conglomerates and utilities sectors. Gold was the weakest sector last weak thus making it attractive to the short side this week. VXX continues to demonstrates ultra high volume on the daily chart signaling that a rally may be underway. I will be cautious this week with an eye on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday.

Longs:

GE
COF
MS
XOM
ORCL
TJX
UNH

Breakouts:

DIS>40.00
TWC>68.00
KO<62.50

Short:

TGT
MRK
GG
SLW

Fridays Game Plan

Today is options expiration Friday. I will only be active in the morning, I wont trade the afternoon session. The direction isnt very clear at this moment in time, the SPY closed right off where it closed the day before after it went straight down in the morning session then straight up in the afternoon. The SPY bounced right off of the 20 DMA. If price manages to auction below yesterday than I expect to see continuation to the down side, but if price doesnt trade below yesterday I expect the market to resume its up move or chop around. The weakest sector yesterday was gold and the strongest were the retailers. Oil and semiconductors performed rather poorly yesterday compared to the financials. Today is a day to limit losses and trade with caution.

Longs:

WMT
HPQ
NVDA
CHK
BHI
AET
XOM
NOV
SLB

Breakouts:

EBAY> 31.60
HD>37.00
TJX>47.20

Shorts:

MWW
SLW

VXX Selling Climax (part 2)

Two days ago, right before the sell off in the SPY, the VXX (VIX ETF) demonstrated a selling climax on ultra high volume. Yesterday, the VXX again demonstrated that same phenomenon. We got another example of an ultra high volume day, this time it was on an upday confirming the bias that there was buying in the ETF.

Thursday's Game Plan

Yesterday for the first time in a long time, the VIX and the TICK's moved in conjunction to confirm the down move in the SPY. The trend seems to have bended after yesterdays price action. However, we still remain in a strong bullish market. The 10 and 20 DMA are yet to cross over signaling just how strong this move really is. I will be open minded today to the direction that the market paints. I will wait for the opening range to form before making any decisions, I want to see how the markets will react after yesterdays sell off.

Longs:

SLB
XOM
UNH
ADBE
CIEN

Short:

KGC
GG
KSS
ABX
AUY
M
MWW

Breakouts:

CHK>28.00
AVP<28.35

Wednesday's Game Plan

The market and SPY had an up day yesterday on a narrow spread and average volume. The market made a new high yesterday but it didnt do it convincinglyl. XLF didnt help the SPY yesterday as it was the weakest sector on the board and had an inside day. Gold on the other hand pulled back yesterday on below average volume. I remain bearish on gold today, and bullish on the oil and semiconductors.

Longs:

TXN
VLO
QCOM
AET
XOM
NOV
LLTC
CIEN
UNH
WFC

Breakouts:

STI>29.45
MET>47.00

Shorts:

AUY
DAL
GG

VXX Selling Climax (Part 1)

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Today while looking at my charts, I noticed the selling climax in the VXX. Notice the utlra high volume on the down day that was on a narrow spread, thats usually a sign of hidden buying in the VXX ( VIX ETF ) this could be a sign that the market is poised to go down and especially now as investors might be getting overly bullish. I am not saying to go against the prevailing bullish strength, what I am saying is that to be careful as this is a warning sign.

Tuesdays Game Plan

The EURO seems to be strong premarket and after the strong close on the SPY I will be paying extra attention to the long side today. Gold seems to have recovered abit premarket as some buying took place. I remain short gold stocks till proven differently. I will be looking at the SMH sector along with the oil sector for possible long as those two sectors have been the main reason behind the rally. The financials are always in play, I will also keep an eye on it as well.

Longs:

ALTR
COF
AET
NOV
BRCM
UNH
LLTC
SLB
WFC
HD
TXN

Breakouts:

AXP> 46.80
BK>32.70
BHI>59.80

Short:

AUY
GG
KGC
SLW
NEM
ABT

Monday's Game Plan

Looking at the price action from last week, we are still in range mode and are yet to clear levels. This is an indication that the market closed on balance. If we open in this range then there wont be much to do and if we break out then I expect to see volatility and follow through.

Longs:

WLP
HPQ
UNH
COF
CIEN


Shorts:

AUY
NEM
BMY
ABX
GG
TRV
M
AKS

Breakdowns:

KGC: 17.30

Breakouts:

AET>32.40

Box To Trend Mode?

Heres a chart of the EURO that might be changing from a box mode to a trending mode after it broke out of its box.

Fridays Game Plan

The SPY closed inside the day before yesterday after it failed to hold above the day befores high indicating a neutral day. This was to be expected since today is the NFP release. The Euro continued to demonstrate weakness and is currently at support that was formed on December first. Should this support be taken out, the market should respond bearishly. However, we are still in a bull market in the SPY and this relative strength shouldnt be ignored especially after QE2. Gold continued to demonstrate weakness in yesterdays session and I will be looking at gold stocks as possible shorts today.


Longs:

TOL
UNH
BA
DOW
WAG
MS
COF
DIS
CIEN
BK

Breakout:

UTX
AET>42.40


Breakdowns:

KSS< 52.00
HAL<37.65
KSS<52.00

Shorts:

LRCX
MCD
KO
EBAY
ABX
KGC
GG
M
AU
SLW

I have a big list today and that indicates that theres probably going to be something to do with one side being active.

Wednesday's Game Plan

The SPY closed on a strong note yesterday above its 2 days range and making a new high with XLF leading the way. There isnt any sector that could help the market rise at the moment other then the XLF or the financial sector. If strength persists in this sector expect the rise to continue today. However, on the other hand we have clear Dollar strength in currencies with the Euro falling over night. This weakness could be a stumbling block for todays rise, and in addition to this the dollar strength has hurt commodities and gold. The weakness in commodities could be another reason why the SPY might struggle to rise today.

I will continue to focus on the XLF sector and pay some attention to the XLK sector today. I will also pay attention to gold and how the weakness persists.

Longs:

DIS
COF
SNDK
BK
VLO
WFC
HIG
WAG
MET
MS

Breakouts:

LEN> 19.25
TOL>20.00
JNPR>38.00
HON>54.50
HPQ>44.65
NTAP>58.00
NTAP>67.50

Shorts:

ABX
NEM<57.50

Wednesday's Game Plan

The market almost exactly where it closed the day before, leaving the SPY in limbo. Currencies are weak and the dollar has been gaining strength through the London session. This could be negative for commodities and gold. GLD and GDX were my weakest sectors yesterday. Should the dollar continue to gain momentum today, then I expect gold to continue to weaken. I will also be watching XLK and XLF to paint the picture on the SPY. Overall we have a mixed picture today and we could sell of then see some buying again.

Longs:

DIS
GE
JPM
MS
JNJ
HIG
XOM
MET

Breakouts:

NTAP
SLW<35.00



Shorts:

AKAM
BRCM<43.00
MCD

GBPJPY Trade

Heres a trade I took of the GBP/JPY. It was one of those trades that I just had to take, so I accepted the risk and pulled the trigger.

Tuesdays Game Plan

In yesterdays price action we saw the SPY break out of its previous days range and close above it. Yet, the close towards the end of the day signaled selling taking place, on volume higher then the volume demonstrated during the morning rally. This is a warning sign. In currencies the USD is weak across the board, they the EUR/USD getting close to taking out its range since November. The market today could go either way, but having the SPY close above its previous days range and having the EUR and GBP strong I am favoring the bulls side.

Longs:

XLF(JPM,MS.COF,HIG,BK)
NTAP
MET
DOW
VLO
HON
XOM
VZ

Short:

TJX

Monday's Game Plan

Today is the first day of the new year, happy new year everyone! Having said that, I will pay extra attention today to the market open. I want to to see how the market will respond to the new year and how it would respond to the holidays. I will look at the strongest sectors premarket and how they react after the open. I will also pay a particular interest in premarket levels along with where we open in the SPY. I will let the market settle down before I initiate any position today, in other words I will wait for the dust to settle before I react.

Longs:

Gold: (ABX, SLW. GG)
AKS
JPM
STI
KO

Breakouts:

SLB>84

Shorts:

UAL
EBAY
AKAM