Wednesdays Game Plan

Breakouts: ACE>65.40 (HBO), C>40.25 (HBO), ,MET>42.00 (HBO), ORCL>32.75 (HBO), TJX>51.60 (HBO)

Shorts: RTN (SAT@49.00 & 50 SMA), SNDK (SAT@41.00), ADSK (SAT@38.00), VLO (SAT@25.00)

Notes:

SPY went up on declining volume yesterday when compared to the previous day. The SPY also is at its key level of 129.80 where if breached should continue to the upside. This market can be extremely choppy today due to Greece. I definately expect to see volatility, caution is adviced.

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs:BRCM (SAT@31.00-31.45)

Breakouts: SBUX>38.00, QCOM>55.00 (HBO), C>40.20 (HBO), MCD>83.00

Shorts: PNC (SAT@58.00), SBUX (SAT), WAG

Notes:

SPY still choppy and ranging between 130.00-126.50. Yesterdays rally was on below average volume. 200 SMA being right beneath the 126.50 level.

Not alot obvious right here, I have 8 ideas which I forced out of my list. I will wait for tape confirmation on any of those ideas and should the market not provide me with any confirmation, I would step aside.

Mondays Game Plan

Longs: PM (SAT), XOM (SAT@76.35 & 200 SMA),

Breakouts: DD>52.00, BBY>33.00, JNJ<65.00, SWN<40.60, Shorts: PBR, JNPR, HD. Notes:

- SPY 200 SMA

- XOM 200 SMA

- Dollar Index about to breakout

-Premarket: EUR/USD rallying and SPY rallying as well which could be a good reason sell into a higher open making this market highly uncertain. I am going to continue to trade without a bias on direction while booking profits as soon as I get them. In other words, I am defensive.

USD/CHF & GBP/USD Weekly

Heres a comparison between the two pairs. The goal of the me showing these two charts is the difference between trading something in play and something dead in the water. GBP is clearly in a choppy zone while CHF is currently trending after an extended balanced area. It is important to always play the hot hand and trade whats in play, trading an instrument that demonstrates no clear edge is nothing more than a gamble.

MSM - Negative Outlook

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A simple explanation of what I think of the MSM at the moment.

Fridays Game Plan

Breakouts: JNPR>30.50 (HBO), QCOM>55.00 (HBO), ALTR>44.50 (HBO), SBUX>38.00, BBY>33.00, INTU>51.00 (HBO), C>39.50 (HBO), ,MCD>83.00, TSO>22.50 (HBO)

Shorts: CIEN (SAT@18.50), SBUX (SAT@38.00), GM (SAT)

Notes:

I remain cautious in these markets as the trend is yet to identify itself.

Yesterday the technology sector held the market and gave it a much needed boost. as the SPY failed to breach its 200 DMA and failed to take out the lows after the gap down. I expect to see some follow through to the upside which I intend on taking advantage of through my breakout plays. Should the market on the other hand saturate and resume the down move, my saturation plays should be handy. I will be observing the tape closely today to examine whether the buying we saw yesterday will resume today.

Premarket the euro is rallying after forming a higher low which is bullish.

Looking at the SPY again, the 200 SMA forced the SPY in a higher low, which is bullish.

Buy the rumor and sell the fact, www.marketwatch.com wrote that more Greece aid likely which was the main driver of the up day yesterday. When are still in rumor mode.

HBO (Hourly Break Outs)

I received several questions regarding HBO's my new setup that I started using regularly to take advantage of volatility. HBO mainly stands for Hourly Break Out, in this technique I use the hourly charts to identify key support and resistance levels that formed over the past 3-10 days.

I trade these setups regardless of the trend on the daily chart. I get excited when an HBO forms at a round number, preferably at .00, .25, .50 and .75. I play these setups in co-ordination with time & sales, I like to see a level break and hold before entering especially when the move is counter trend.

I could also take a breakout on a pause below my HBO level. Volume also plays a huge role in identifying levels that could follow through; activity at these levels where the bids or offers get hit and breached then hold afterwards provides confirmation.

The time frame that I use for HBO’s is the hourly chart, which is used for HBO identification and the 2 minute chart that I use for HBO entries. The reason I use the 2 minute is that these moves might not last very long and the waiting for a 5 minute confirmation could provide me with a late entry where I miss the move.

As for profit taking, I use 2 techniques to take them. The first is after enter I use the 10 EMA and 20 SMA on the 2 minute chart to trail my profits till I get a candle close above or below them. The second technique is to book profits on momentum at a pre designated level with risk/reward being above 1/1.5 and as usual, my stops are automatically moved to break even when R/R is 1/1 to have a freebie where I get a free trade with no downside.

Thursdays Game Plan

Longs: BBY (SAT), PM (SAT@66.50). D (SAT)

Breakouts: MCD>83.00, A>50.00 (HBO)



Shorts: CIEN (SAT@18.00), GG (SAT@50.00), SBUX (SAT@27.50), TSO, C, TXN, SU

Notes:

The SPY saturated yesterday after the FOMC minutes. The down trend is set to continue today as I expect the lows to be tested, a decline on low volume would indicate that the selling has ended. Premarket the EUR/USD.

Wednesdays Game Plan

Breakouts: DPS>41.20 (HBO), MCD>83.00, KO>66.25 (HBO), BBY>33.00, C>39.50 (HBO), D>48.50,


Shorts: HPQ (SAT@35.50), DIS (SAT@39.00), HD (SAT@35.50), QCOM (SAT@55.00), COF (SAT@51.00 & 20DMA), M (SAT@28.50), TXN (SAT@32.00), JDSU (SAT@16.50), ABX (SAT@44.50)

Notes:

Two up days in the SPY could indicate saturation here, I am however careful as the buying has been on accelerating volume, we could see a third up day in a row before ths market saturates.

I only have saturation shorts and breakouts long today. If this market goes up for a third day in a row, my breakouts should put me in the right direction. However, should the market sink in and saturate, my game plan will help me take advantage of the situation.

Premarket the FX market didnt rally as signs of saturation from the 2 day rally seems to be present. We also have the FOMC statement after at 8:30 (GMT+4) which is after the open by 3 hours. Choppy action is also expected on such days, which could invalidate breakouts.

Tuesdays Game Plan

Longs: WAG, COH

Breakouts: MCD>83.00, SWN<40.50M JPM<40.00, KO>66.25 (HBO), PCAR>48.30 (HBO), HD>35.00 (HBO),AXP>49.40, PM>69.50 (HBO), D>48.50, UNH>51.50

Volatility: NVDA (R= 16.00, S= 15.50)

Shorts: WDC <33.50 Notes:

NVDA: Has the potential to either be a saturation long or a breakout short after the stock formed a bearish pennant on the hourly.

The market is most likely headed for a rotational choppy day. I have a ton of breakout trades today which isn't what I wanted to see as the potential for them to move cleanly is very low. I expect alot of fake breakouts as this environment waits for the FOMC report tomorrow. I will be breakouts safely in this environment, taking only those that hold above the level and demonstrate clear order flow on the tape prior to the breakout. I will also be more inclined to take breakouts that test resistance after it breaks out and holds Ray style.

I have zero saturation plays, which indicates just how much this market has been indecisive.

The rally yesterday in the markets was on below average volume which indicated short covering ahead of tomorrows reports.

Mondays Game Plan

Longs:SNDK (SAT@21.00), EMC (SAT@25.80), TEVA (SAT@47.00), NVDA (15.35)

Breakouts: WDC <33.25, AMGN <58.00, XOM <79.00, MCD >83.00

Volatility:

Shorts: UAL (SAT@24.00), PNC, WFC (SAT@27.50)

Notes:

SMH & TECH Saturation. Saturation will remain in play as long as the sector holds at support. If it breaks down I dont expect to see follw through on my tech saturation plays.

Longs: AKS (SAT), MCO (SAT@38.00 & 50 SMA), EMC (SAT@26.00), M (SAT@26.50), ORCL (SAT), TWC (SAT@73.00), MS (SAT@22.00)

Breakouts: GG<46.00, SUN<37.50, SU<37.75, MCD > 82.00, AMGN > 58.75 (HBO), WAG > 44.50 (HBO)

Volatility: TWC (R= 34.75, S= 34.40)

Shorts: BRCM

Notes:

It seems that the market capitulated yesterday and a short term bottom had formed. This was confirmed by the transition pattern on the hourly along with the shake out. The the down move yesterday in the SPX also bounced right off of the 200 DMA which was another referance point. Premarket the EURO is rallying against the dollar as a double bottom 1-2-3 pattern formed on the hourly.

TWC can go in either direction here after the inside day at support.

New concept: HBO (Hourly Break Outs)

Thursday Game Plan

Longs: MS (SAT@ 28.00), ACE (SAT@ 64.00), TRV (SAT@ 57.50) , AXP (SAT@ 47.00)

Breakouts:JDSU<16.50, STJ<47.75, PNC<58.00, SBUX<34.75, COF<47.75

Volatility:

Shorts: HIG, EBAY, SU, DOW, XOM, GG (SAT@ 48.00)

Notes:

Financial sector saturation. GG saturation also looks good, breakouts also look good. It seems like there will be something to do this session. My tactics for this environment remains the same, book em while you still have em! Goodluck with your trading!

Wednesdays Game Plan

Longs: COF (SAT@48.00)

Breakouts:JNJ>67.35, MCO>42.00, EBAY< 29.50

Shorts: UAL, DIS, KO (SAT@66.00), ADSK, WDC (SAT@35.50)

Notes:

Premarket the EUR/USD has sold off after it bounced off of the 50% retracement level. Everything else is extremely choppy, no sector demonstrating leadership. I will remain careful in this environment, taking profit on momentum.

Tuesday Gameplan

Longs: UNH (SAT@ 49.00 & 20 SMA) , JDSU (SAT@16.50 & 200SMA) , BRCM (SAT@32.00)

Breakouts:BBY<28.50, UTX<82.50, TWX<34.50, DOW<34.75, EBAY<29.50, XOM<79.00, MRO<49.00, JNJ>73.25

Volatility: SNDK (R= 42.75 S= 42.00)

Shorts: C (SAT@39.50), JPM (SAT), MS (SAT), DPS (SAT@41.00), DD

Notes:

Choppy SPY yesterday where the market did nothing, we are approaching the primary buy zone and support. I will be focusing on my saturation plays today as they can play out really well. The bounce in the financials confuses me a little bit, it was on high volume which might signal that the sector has bottomed out. The second scenario is that the bounce range wasn't strong enough which might indicate that the buying was met by selling.

In such circumstances, it is best to play it safe and go contrary to what every one is doing through the saturation plays. The energy sector is still weak and sentiment is still bearish. Pre-market the Euro is bouncing from the inside day formed yesterday. It will be interesting to see how and where the markets open today. Caution is required in these conditions, I will continue to take profits on momentum.

Mondays Game Plan

Longs: M (SAT@24.00),BRCM (SAT@32.75), AMGN (SAT@58.00)

Breakouts: SU<38.65

Volatility:

Shorts:PCAR, TXN

Notes:

Fridays Game Plan

Longs: ADSK (SAT@38.00) , ALTR (SAT@44.00), AKAM (SAT@30.00), NVDA (SAT@17.00)

Breakouts: UNH>51.00, AET>44.00, KLAC< 40.00, DOW<34.85 Shorts: GM (SAT@29.50), HD, AXP, COST (SAT) Notes:

The SPY bounced yesterday as we saw short covering, the rally was on low volume and the market sold off later in the day. Technology was the weakest sector yesterday as it didnt really bounce with the rest of the market. I have saturation plays in the sector today as I wait for a bounce to occur. Commodities and gold was the strongest yesterday.

Thursday's Game Plan

Longs: UAL (SAT@ 21.80), DIS (SAT@ 39.00), RTN (SAT@ 48.00), DPS (SAT@ 39.50 & 50 SMA), HON (SAT@56.00), HIG (SAT), TXN (SAT@ 32.25), COH (SAT@ 58.50)

Breakouts: SWN> 44.50, D>47.85

Shorts: M (SAT @28.00), SUN, HOG, ALTR

Notes:

6 straight down days in a row, will we get 7? Anything is possible. I will keep an eye on my saturation plays though and take profits on momentum.

Wednesdays Game Plan

Longs:EMC (SAT@27.00), UNH (SAT@47.50 and 50 SMA) , ACE (SAT@67 and 50SMA)

Breakouts: HpQ<35.50, SWN>44.00, EBAY<29.50, TWX <34.50

Shorts: AKAM, COF

Notes:

Very few plays in todays game plan due to the absence of conviction in any direction, the market is oversold at this level, making it difficult to go short. It is also very difficult to get long as the market is in a short term down trend. Trading agressively in this environment is a gamble.

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: UAL (SAT@22.00), JDSU (SAT@18.00), EBAY (SAT@29.50 & 200SMA), M (SAT@27.00), PM(SAT@68.00), ALTR (SAT@45.00)

Breakouts: JDSU, EBAY, ALTR


Shorts:TSO, VLO, GM, HOG

Mondays Game Plan

Longs: PM (SAT@ 68.00), GM (SAT@ 29.00), DD (SAT@ 50.00), SBUX (SAT@ 35.00)
ALTR (SAT@ 45.00)

Breakouts: SWN>44.00, TSO<22.50, TWX<35.00, DOWN<34.80

Shorts: JPM, TGT, ORCL, COST, WDC, COF, INTU, SNDK

Friday's Game Plan

Longs: RTN (SAT@ 48.50), COH (SAT@ 61.25), COST (SAT@ 78.50 & 50 SMA), PM (SAT), GM (SAT@ Suppot), TSO (SAT@ Support 22.50)

Breakouts: EMC, TEVA>51.00, WFC<26.50, PNC < 59.75, MRO, TSO < 22.50, Volatility: (A R= 48.60 S= 47.85) Shorts: DIS, TGT Notes:

Today is NFP Friday and I expect to see volatility in this this directionless market. At this point it will be easier to toss a coin and guess the direction then try and predict the direction of the SPY. I will try to be as cautious as possible today, if this market doesn't know where its headed for I wont be on board. I believe in high probability trading, and this isn't it. Until ket levels are cleared, I remain focused on survivng this choppy condition.

(A) looks awesome as a volatility play, if it breaks down it takes out the 50 SMA and if it breaks out it has room to go to the upside which is the day before yesterdays high.

Thursday

Longs:SWN (SAT), JCP (SAT), PNC (SAT), A (SAT), COH(SAT), TJX


Breakouts: AKS, PCAR<56.50, JCP<33.50, HOG<36.00, DOW<35.00, PNC < 60


Volatility:


Shorts: STI, ORCL, WDC, DIS


Notes:

Yesterday for the first time in a long time we saw a broadbased down move where the SPY sold on above average volume and was down 2.25% by the end of the day. This move caught investors off guard as the market had rallied for four consecutive days before selling hit the market. All sectors were down by the end of the day, especially the financials that took a hit.

JCP (SAT) @ 33.50

PNC (SAT)@ 58.50 with 20% level confluence and 200 SMA

 A (SAT) @ 48.00


COH (SAT) @ 62


TJX (SAT) 52.00

Wednesdays Game Plan

Longs: QCOM, PM, MCD (SAT), UAL

Breakouts: MRO>54.25, IAG>21.25, TEVA>51.25, JNJ>67.40, EMC

Shorts: SNDK (SAT), NVDA (SAT), TXN (SAT)

Notes:

UAL: SAT @ 23.50 and 50 SMA confluence.

SPY had a strong day yesterday after it rallied late in the day to recover the sell off in the morning. The market however is still in a range and that should be given due diligence and consideration. Yesterday the tech sector was strong, I have some breakouts in that sector along with a few saturation plays. Everything will depent on the open today and whether we open higher, lower or inside yesterday. The key level to watch in the SPY is 135.00 at the moment.