Nawras IPO

Currently Nawras is undergoing an IPO, the question is whether its a good idea to participate. I believe it is, and my reasons are listed below:
1- This is the first major IPO since 2007 when Galfar was listed. Galfar rose 60% on its first day on an over optimistic market.

2- Small investors are still hurt and scared from what happened in 2008, people dont get over memories like that overnight. Professionals should not have any trouble owning this stock, which they will as the stock is fundamentally strong.

3- Nawras is the second major telecommunications here in Oman after Omantel, and given Omantels mediocre service. Nawras will overtake the company given that the obtain the sufficient funds.

4- Markets worldwide are poised for an up move that will probably end in December-Jan chart.

5- The MSM seems to have bottomed out (look at the first chart).

6- OTEL which is the only stock that competes with nawras seems to have formed a double bottom on the daily timeframe.

7- Buying Nawras would be going against the crowd, the crowd are wrong most of the time and professionals know that. The crowd thinks that this stock is too expensive. Given the market long term cycle I believe that we have bottomed out and now is the perfect time to buy and hold. I don’t believe this stock will explode to the upside after the IPO but I do believe it will go up slowly and steadily, it will pick up momentum as time passes as small investors come to the conclusion that they are missing out, they will enter and buy, till the stock is overbought. That’s when I intend to exit.

8- Nawras will be the trigger that sends the market higher after the IPO, I believe that IPO will do so well, that cash will come back into the MSM as the timing is perfect.

These are the reasons I expect Nawras to go up, but that doesn't mean it can't go down because it can. You have to plan for both sides as anything can happen.