Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: ANR (19.00), EMN, OAS

Breakouts: X<27.50, XOM>88.00, MOS>59.50,PCAR>46.75, YUM>66.00, WFC>31.50, UAL<20.00,CDE>30.75, C>33.50

Shorts: TJX (37.00), SNDK, KLAC

Notes:

SPY made multi year highs yesterday, I am either bullish or neutral today with trading shorts super carefully. Order flow is up.

EUR/USD heading south after LTRO2 being higher then LTRO1 (strange).

SLV blew past resistance yesterday XLF looks set to do today what it failed to do yesterday which is breakout.

SPY, QQQ, IWM and DIA all higher.

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: WFC, JPM, CDE (28.00), UAL (20.00).

Breakouts: COF>49.75, DIS>42.00, NVLS>45.75, X<27.50. Volatility: GILD (R=45.30 S=44.70). Shorts: COH (76.50), COP (77.00), EBAY (36.75). Notes: XLF > 14.85 could be the beginning of a strong day in the sector. I will be watching XLF closely today. SLV is also on the verge of ripping past resistance at 34.50. Gold seemed to have saturated yesterday with natural gas looking like its heading to test the lows to possibly form a shakeout.

VIX@18.20, TLT gapped higher and held yesterday, USD/JPY continues to be strong, EUR/USD range bound, gold slightly higher and oil slightly lower.

As for the SPY it will be key to watch whether it can hold above 137.00, a move lower could see the SPY test 136.00, QQQ has a clear trendline that started on the gap after the second of Feb, the trendline is visible on the hourly chart and any breakout that line could see cascade selling in the NASDAQ index. Quantitative studies are bearish.

My approach for the day will again be conservative, I traded well yesterday but didn't trade optimally, my trade in YUM could have been handled better. My analysis says that we are resigned to a dip, however, it is important to remember that we are in a bull market, most shorts will be met by buying unless a catalyst hits the market that shakes the belief that the Fed will rescue the market. That being said, we are in an overbought bull market, at these levels caution must be exercised.

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: CDE (28.00), SLW

Breakouts: CHK>26.00, AXP>53.50, X<27.50, COF>49.75, WLP>67.00, ESRX>52.75, BHI>53.00

Volatility: XOM (R=87.50 S=87.00), YUM (R=65.85 S=65.30)

Shorts: EBAY (36.50)

Notes:

-SLW long is due to the probable breakout of SLV above 34.60.

-CHK is a breakout due to the fact that UNG has been pulling back for the past two days triggering a potential saturation play while CHK rallied and approached its key breakout level of 26.00.

-We are in a market that is very difficult at the moment, as longs term investors find the market overbought and short selling investors believe this market should go lower but are caught up in the grinding up move. This market is waiting for a catalyst and until one becomes apparent, things will continue to churn. We have one key economic indicator on Monday which is pending home sales, I dont expect it to be our catalyst. Our catalyst should come later in the week when Fed Cheif Bernanke speaks along with the GDP report which should shake up the markets.

-The VIX has formed a higher low and has bounced off of support. UUP is also at its 200 SMA and a key level for saturation at 21.75. AUD/USD failed to rally with other currencies on Friday. These signs are in favor of the bears.Quant studies are also bearish and indicate a dip.

-My approach for Monday will be very conservative, I will book on momentum and will wait for confirmation on breakouts on the 5 minute chart. Short plays will also be taken after confirmation and will be treated with caution, I will only take T1 trades on these counter trend ideas and I will only take them after confirmation.

-Key levels to watch in the SPY, R=137.00 S=135.75 anything in between will be a chop. As for the QQQ r=64.00 s=6300 respectively.

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: EBAY, TIF (66.25), KSS (48.75)

Breakouts: RIG>51.00, COF>49.75, NEM>64.50, CDE>29.75, WLP>66.50, BHI>52.75,

Volatility: C (R=33.00 S=32.25), NVLS (R=45.50 S=44.50)

Short: SCSS (29.00), PG (66.50), CYH (25.00)

Notes:

The head and shoulders pattern in the SPY from yesterday failed to breakdown and served as a shakeout as the SPY rallied. Key level to watch in the SPY is 137.00. Key level for the QQQ is 64.00 and for the DIA 129.70.

Currencies higher as USD plunges on strong risk appetite. With the Nikkei, Shanghai and Hang Seng higher.

Quant studies are clearly bearish.

If we open higher, which is most probably the case today I will be looking for the SPY to hold above yesterdays high. Should it not hold, my saturation shorts and volaility plays will most probably come into play. Watch the opening range will be crucial today, in this envrionment it is be to be patient as a counter trend move is likely and if it isn't then its best to wait for confirmation through the opening range. 137.00 is the key level to watch should we hold.

Watch CAT>116.40

VIX@18.00

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs:SLW, TRV(58.75), ALTR (38.50), RIMM (14.50), TIF (64.50),AKAM(64.50), CIEN (14.75), JDSU (13.85), X (27.50)

Breakouts:BHI>52.85, CDE>29.50,WLP>67.00

Shorts:NEM (63.00), GG(49.50)

Notes:

- It will be important to assess the open today to identify whether these plays in commodities are valid or not.

- Hong Kong and Shanghai performing strong after they broke out of their ranges and trendlines respectively. This is good for equities.

- XME failed to follow all other commodities yesterday after they all went up except for the metal industry. This was mainly due to weak economic indicators from China who are considered to be a key importer, this trend shouldn't last long however as the Shanghai index as mentioned above seems to be stabilizing where accumulation is begining to take place.

- The SPY formed an hourly head and shoulders pattern that could lead to some selling before investors pick it up at lower levels. Key levels to watch are (R=136.30 S=136.00) with quant studies indicate a pullback is on the cards. I will continue to trade cautiously in this environment, treating any short sales with the utmost diligence due to its counter trend characteristic. Serious short selling should be triggered by a catalyst.

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: AET (46.75), TMO (55.75), CELG (73.50), AKAM (37.00), RIMM (14.75), ALTR (39.00), NVLS (45.00), KLAC (48.00)

Breakouts: SLW>37.30, COP>74.00, WLP>67.00, BA>76.00, ESRX>53.00, DIS>41.85, DNDN<13.85,

Volatility: MS (R=19.50 S=19.00), PCAR (R=46.50 S=45.80), TAL (R=37.50 S=37.00)

Shorts: POT (47.50),TJX (35.25), MCD (100.75)

Notes:

TAL is due for the mother of all breakouts - 4 inside days.

GLD - GDX - SLV; were the strongest yesterday along with the XME - XOP - XLE which meant that commodities in general were strong yesterday. USO is above its pivotal $40.00. The key level in gold is 1760.

Some industries saw some strong selling yesterday (XRT - XHB - SMH - IBB). These industries were the lead the market up and are now starting to slow down while other sectors/industries come into play. XLF looks like it is set to take out resistance at 14.85.

AUD/USD key level 1.0625.

HSBC Flash PMI out of CNY, A ton of Indicators out of Europe and Existing Home Sales out of the US is on todays calendar.

Quant studies: The quant studies seem to indicate a short term (1-2 day) bias to the downside, while the long and intermedia term we remain in rally bullish mode.

Apple AAPL

AAPL has been the talk of the globe and today a colleague asked me about Apple and what I thought of it at the moment, my answer was simple, I told her to forget about it and here’s why:

1- Extreme optimism about the company, everyone and their aunt is bullish AAPL at the moment except for the big boys who are willingly selling their holdings to the misinformed public.

2- Selling Climax on the 15th on Ultra high volume (53.7 million shares) on a day that closed at its bottom. This will most likely lead to a sideways market at best!

3- The thing just went Parabolic! Which is another major sign that this thing has topped (short term at least). Again I refer to my first point.

4- AAPL's move was on the back of earnings that smashed expectations, AAPL had revenue of $46 billion when it was estimated that it would earn some like $38 billion. Now my question is? Can AAPL really earn much more in the future? Anything is possible even though I think it’s going to be difficult.

5- Its $502 a share for crying out loud, and if the retail investor got interested at this level he would need (100*502) $50200 to buy 100 shares! Could this same investor possibly stomach a pullback and handle the volatility? I don't think so; I already see blood on the streets. I read about a guy of whom I won’t name that said AAPL could be traded with good risk management, my thoughts were what risk management? The danger of this thing going down was far more likely than the opportunity that it remains in parabolic mode. The risk/reward simply isn't favorable here no matter how you look at it.

Summary:

Technically, AAPL looks like it’s due for a correction sometime soon, whether its distribution or re-accumulation remains to be seen. A move below 490 should trigger some panic selling which should send it all the way down to around the $450 level. The risk/reward at this phase just doesn’t add up, especially after AAPL exhausted itself at $530 after moving $100 from the $430 level. Fundamentally the stock is sound, the company has loads of cash and the ability to handle anything at this point, $48 billion in revenues and about $100 billion in cash is no joke. My play however, would be to stay away from AAPL at the moment, until it falls back to more attractive levels where I would wait for confirmation before getting long.

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: LIFE (44.50)

Breakouts: EBAY>35.00, JPM>38.50, HON>60.25, C (R=33.00 S=32.50),BA (R=75.50 S=75.00), UNH(R=55.00 S=54.50), WLP>66.75),WDC>40.75, BBY>26.00, TAL (R=37.50 S=36.75), COF>49.75, ANR<20.00, DIS>41.80, SLW>36.50, ESRX>52.75, AKAM<37.50

Shorts: CHK (25.00), BHI (50.50),DD (51.75), DOW (35.00), EBAY (35.00), HON (60.25)

Notes:

Pending list depending on the open: EBAY, HON

A round of rhetoric is over, Greece gets its bailout and the actual news comes out.

Quant studies are bearish.

Gap higher will probably trigger saturation plays short.

No major news release today.

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: SNDK, LMT (86.00), COH (74.00),

Breakouts: EBAY>34.50, AXP>53.50, ALTR>41.00, LVS>53.50, BBY>26.00, WLP>66.40, XOM>85.50, TAL (R=38.00 S=37.00), HON>56.00, COF>47.50, AET(R=47.30 S=47.00), COP>74.00,

Shorts: PCAR (27.00), CHK (24.00), SWN (36.00), JDSU (14.75), VLO (25.50), EMN>54.75, CELG (75.75),

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: DD (49.25), C (31.50), FCX (42.00), HAL (35.00), X (27.50)

Breakouts: DNDN<14.00, COF<49.00, AMGN (R=68.00 S=67.50), ESRX>52.50, MOS<54.50, XOM<83.25,WLP<64.00, AXP<51.50 Shorts: NTAP (40.00), VLO (25.00), LOW>27.50, UNH (55.00), AKAM<37.50 (Gapfill)

Notes:

Extremely stock specific environment the day before yesterday due to the absence of volume made yesterday a very difficult day to trade, quant studies showed the likelihood of a down day and we got it. It was difficult to not lose money yesterday as almost all my stocks weren't in play. The QQQ climaxed out yesterday on ultra high volume which was mainly influenced by the climax in AAPL which had went parabolic, this should signal intermediate selling,however, the long term trend remains intact. The SPY and DIA were also weak, however, not as weak as the QQQ and its associated tech sector. As of yet, I can't see any sector in play in this stock specific environment but given yesterday prices action I expect some sectors to be stronger/weaker than the rest as more sectors come into play into this correction/pullback in the return of volume.

The key level to the downside in the SPY is 134.25 - 134.00, if breached it should prompt further selling that could be met by buying or further selling. 135.50 is the other key level to the upside that if tested would prompt a reaction. The key level for the QQQ is 62.70, while for the IWM its 81.00.

The VIX is at 21 as volatility creeps in, with the DX also taking out its pivotal 79.50 level further adding fuel to the fire. TLT on the other hand declined yesterday with the market as selling engulfed everything including treasuries. We also have a ton of economic indicators coming out today, we have the Building Permits, PPI and the Unemployment Claims indicator coming out prior to the market open along with the Bernanke who’s going to speak half an hour prior to the open. We then have the Phily Fed Manufacturing Index coming out half an hour after the open, these elements are further evidence that today is going to be volatile.

Quant studies indicate to a down day, the EUR/USD is at its 50 DMA and is about to break it with gold and silver both down. Hang Seng is down along wih Shanghai, both being down about .4 percent. Futures are all pointing to a lower open, this open could be met by buying and trigger my saturation play or we could see volume hit the market and send it lower, watching volume and how vicious the bears is crucial to identifying whos in control. That being said, I will be very careful with any potential longs, trailing them on lower timeframes or booking them on momentum. We are still in a bull market and one down day doesn't change anything.

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: X (27.50), ANR (19.50), C (31.50), RIMM (14.50), KSS

Breakouts: UAL>24.00, LOW>27.50, AMGN (R=68.00 S=67.50), AKAM (R=38.75 S=38.00), TMO (R=57.50 S=55.00), SWN>34.75, COP>74.00, CIEN>17.00, ESRX>52.50, CELG>74.50


Shorts: TPX (74.00), PM (82.00), CELG (74.50), UNH (54.50)


Notes:

XLP, XLV Strong as investors get defensive. While gold had two inside days at support.

Key level in SPY is 135.50 and 134.25. QQQ has already taken off.

VIX@19.50

Quant studies are short term bearish

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: X (29.00), DD (50.50), NTAP (39.00), ANR (20.00)

Breakouts: JDSU (NR7 R=14.25 S=14.00), KSS>50.50, UAL (R=24.00 S=23.50), AKAM (R=38.00 S=39.00), YUM (R=65.00 S=64.50), CDE<26.75, ANR<20.00

Shorts: JPM (38.50), PM (81.50), LOW (27.50)

Notes:

Few setups as the market consolidates in anticipation of a catalyst.

We have Retail Sales and Core Retail numbers coming out today along with Geithner speaking.

Quant analysis is bearish.

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: CELG (71.50), NVLS (47.00), JAZZ (48.00), CDE (27.00), NVDA (15.75), KLAC (49.50), RIMM (15.25), BHI (47.50), TAL (34.00), DNDN (RDR), X (29.00), HAL (36.00),

Breakouts: AMGN (IDB R= 67.40 S= 66.80), UNH>53.50, SWN (IDB R=34.00 S=33.15), WLP (NR7 R=64.50 S=64.00),AXP>52.50 (HBO), UAL (NR7 R=24.00 S=23.50), KSS>50.50, XOM<83.25, WDC (NR7 R=38.80 S=28.80), AET>46.00, PCAR<42.75, SNDK<46.00, C (IDB R=33.25 S=32.75 PSZ) Shorts: COH (RDR) Notes: Looks like gold, staples and healthcare are ready to go. VIX@ $20.70 QQQ>DIA>SPY>IWM with IWM being the weakest at this point and QQQ being the strongest.

No major US economic releases on Monday.

Everyone is bullish, sentiment is that the Fed will save everyone should the market roll over. This is bearish.

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: NTAP, GG(46.50), JAZZ (48.50), AMGN (66.50), DNDN (14.50).

Breakouts: ANR>23.00, UNH>53.50, COF>49.50,AET>46.00, AXP>52.50,JDSU (NR7 R=14.00 S=13.50), KSS>50.50, UAL (NR7 R=24.25 S=23.50), JNPR>23.50, LOW (NR7 R=27.01 S=26.75), HON (Double IDB R=60.00 S=59.60), MOS (NR7 R=56.50 S=55.90).

Shorts: SBUX (49.50 its a saturation idea because volume has been expanding while its daily range has been also expanding on volume that is below the 50 period ATR, this idea is risky and an RDR trade is favorable in this scenario), QCOM (RDR contracting range on accelerating volume).

Notes:

IBB is at its 10 EMA and is saturating on below average volume and range, it also formed an inside day yesterday and is forming a triangle at the same time on the hourly (JAZZ AMGN).

The VIX is up 2.59% to 18.63 while the SPY is also up .13% to 135.36 - Quantifiable Edges say this is bearish.

Tech strongest at the moment (QQQ)

As for economic indicators, we have Trade Balance - Prelim UoM Consumor Sentiment and Bernanke speaking at 9.30 (GMT+4).

Given the above, we are on a Friday, I expect the morning to be quite and choppy as traders will wait for Bernanke at 9.30 which will be when most traders will have already gone home. The lower open in the Futures is tricky, a push lower will most probabily be met by buying while a move higher will be met by selling causing our choppy day. I will be trading on momentum today, booking what ever comes along as the environment calls for it with a slightly bullish bias.

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: UAL, ANR (21.75), DNDN (15.00)

Breakouts: C>34.50, JDSU>14.00, LVS>52.07, FCX>47.00 (HBO), POT>46.50 (HBO), AET>45.50, MS (NR7 R=20.50 S=20.00), KSS (IDB R=50.50 S=49.75), DD (NR7 R=52.00 S=51.00), PCAR (NR7 R= 44.00 S=43.25), WLP<63.50, LOW>27.50, HON (NR7 R=60.00 S=59.00)

Shorts: CIEN (RDR), SWN (RDR),VIAB (RDR)