Monday, February 27, 2012

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: CDE (28.00), SLW

Breakouts: CHK>26.00, AXP>53.50, X<27.50, COF>49.75, WLP>67.00, ESRX>52.75, BHI>53.00

Volatility: XOM (R=87.50 S=87.00), YUM (R=65.85 S=65.30)

Shorts: EBAY (36.50)

Notes:

-SLW long is due to the probable breakout of SLV above 34.60.

-CHK is a breakout due to the fact that UNG has been pulling back for the past two days triggering a potential saturation play while CHK rallied and approached its key breakout level of 26.00.

-We are in a market that is very difficult at the moment, as longs term investors find the market overbought and short selling investors believe this market should go lower but are caught up in the grinding up move. This market is waiting for a catalyst and until one becomes apparent, things will continue to churn. We have one key economic indicator on Monday which is pending home sales, I dont expect it to be our catalyst. Our catalyst should come later in the week when Fed Cheif Bernanke speaks along with the GDP report which should shake up the markets.

-The VIX has formed a higher low and has bounced off of support. UUP is also at its 200 SMA and a key level for saturation at 21.75. AUD/USD failed to rally with other currencies on Friday. These signs are in favor of the bears.Quant studies are also bearish and indicate a dip.

-My approach for Monday will be very conservative, I will book on momentum and will wait for confirmation on breakouts on the 5 minute chart. Short plays will also be taken after confirmation and will be treated with caution, I will only take T1 trades on these counter trend ideas and I will only take them after confirmation.

-Key levels to watch in the SPY, R=137.00 S=135.75 anything in between will be a chop. As for the QQQ r=64.00 s=6300 respectively.

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