Friday, October 29, 2010

Friday's Game Plan





Yesterday the SPY attempted to open above its previous two days high and key resistance at 119.00 and failed to hold. That resulted in a down move back into the previous range and that made the market unclear. EUR/USD showed some weakness today in the london session as shown in the chart above and I also attached a chart of the GDX and how gold followed through yesterday after my analysis. 
Today ill be waiting to see the open and I will be waiting for the US GDP report number to come out. We should get some volatility today.

Longs:

ORCL: A long after we took out resistance at 29.30 yesterday.

DIS: A long with room to go. IPT 37.50

INTU: Took out resistance at 48.00 and held yesterday

TXN: A long that formed a bullish flag intraday.

UAL: Bullish flag on the hourly.

Breakouts:

ABX> 47.00

TWC: 58.45

LLTC> 31.85

USB>45.60

Shorts:

HGSI: A sell short that had some short covering for the past weak, notice the volume though as it has been below average on the updays reflecting the short covering, price then attempted to go above its resistance level of the past 8 days and got rejected on above average volume. This stock should resume down.

WLP < 54.20

LEN: A sell short again after the short covering dried out.

TGT: Short selling dried up and now has to take out key support before moving down.vxx

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Gold to resume rally?

Above we have two charts, one of the GDX which is the gold sector ETF and AUY which is a gold stock.

Yesterday we got an intraday reversal in the gold sector after it failed to take out support. Prices formed an intraday bullish U-Turn. This could signal that gold is headed higher.

Thursday's Game Plan

The market continued to trade in its range yesterday without any significant movement. The strongest sector remains to be technology. Nothing much has changed, we will remain in a stock specific environment until we clear the 116-119 levels in the SPY and that wont happen unless we get a catalyst. Tomorrow's GDP report could be the catalyst everyone has been waiting for.

Longs:

BRCM: A long that blased off after its earning yesterday. The gap up was on ultra high volume and the stock managed to close on its highs.

UAL: A long.

DAL: A long with room to go. IPT 14.40

ALTR: A long that took out its key resistance level. at 31.00.

TXN: A long after yesterdays price action.

DIS: A long with room to go after taking out its range for the past 5 months.

DOW: A long that had an inside day before yesterday then had a bullish u turn pattern day yesterday. Strong stock with room to go.

Breakouts:

LLTC > 31.80

MS: < 24.00

MET>40.90

Shorts:

Non as gold stocks showed intraday strength yesterday after they failed in their attempt to take out support.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Wednesday's Game Plan

The market again traded in the range yesterday on below average volume. Little has changed as the SPY closed right at where it closed off the day before.

Longs:

EBAY: A long after taking out multi year highs.

UAL: A long.

TJX: IPT 46.75.

PM: A long that had an inside day yesterday.

DD: A long that formed a bullush U turn intraday yesterday on above average volume.

DOW: A long that formed an inside day yesterday.

Breakouts:

DIS> 36.22

SBUX>28.60

Shorts:

CHK: A sell short that showed some short selling yesterday.

WLP: Weak stock with room to go. IPT at 54.83

COF: A sell short.

MS: A sell short, has to go below 24:00 and hold to confirm weakness.

Breakdowns:

KGC < 17.40.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

The market yesterday gapped above its key levels but found little interest at those prices as prices slowly drifted downwards. The QQQQ's managed to close above yesterday but on low volume. The low conviction to the upside after all the good news that came out is negative. Should the market come back into its previous price action area. Then I expect the chop and lack of direction to continue.

Longs:

DOW: A long after yesterdays price action.

PM: Broke out yesterday after above average volume.

AKAM: Finally turned into an A long yesterday. Has room to go with IPT being 50.50.

TJX: A long. IPT at 46.30.

Shorts:

AXP: A sell short with room to go.

BK: A sell short. IPT 24.45

CHK: A sell short. IPT 20.75.

NEM: Weak stock with room to go after it gapped up yesterday and failed to hold. Came right back into Fridays range.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Monday's Game Plan

The SPY is still trading in a range, the levels to watch in the SPY are 119 -116. A break in either direction could signal momentum. If the markets open above, ill be waiting for it to hold above and if it opens inside yesterday ill look at the 119 level to act as resistance and depending on market internals I might enter my trades if we pause right below the level. If we start going down on the day Ill look at the low of Friday to act as support at 117.20. If we fail then we have alot of resistance to the downside, ill have to access the potential of my trades playing out to the short side before entering.

Longs:

SLB: A long that gapped up and held on news of positive earnings.

SBUX: A long and formed a bullish fuel candle on the daily, it slightly took out resistance of Friday and ill be looking for it to hold above 28.50.

BHI: A long that broke out of its range. Next resistance and IPT is at 47.40.

UNH: A long that has room to go after taking out its 52 week highs.

HON: A long that took out resistance yesterday. IPT 48.00

HUM: A long with alot of room to go.

Breakouts:

TXN: A long that has been pausing above resistance on the daily time frame, the pause looks like a bullish flag. 29 is the level to watch.

COST > 64

CVS > 85.00

Shorts:

CHK: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 20.73

AXP: A sell short after short covering exhausted itself out. On friday we got a breaish fuel candle at the 50% retracement level. Next support is at 38.73then 37.90.

Breakdown:

KGC < 17.40

PRU < 52:10

AKS< 13.20 also had an inside day on Friday, if it break AKS can move fast.

BK< 25.12

Friday, October 22, 2010

Friday's Game Plan

The market tried to break out yesterday and opened strong but failed to hold up and came right back in to bounce back up again during the last two hours of the day simply stated, this market is choppy and rangebound. The levels of the range are 118.70- 116.70 then 116.00. A break in either direction could pave the way for momentum to kick in. XLK again tested resistance yesterday and failed, the more it tests the more likely it will go through so Ill keep an eye on it. XLF in no mans land, too choppy given all the news surrounding the financial sector at the moment regarding the foreclosures and the Bank of America (BAC). If we gap down today Ill watch how the market reacts at the levels mentioned above, if we hold Ill be looking to go long by trading the strongest stocks in my list and if we fail and go through it, I will cautiously trade the short side. If we gap above the previous resistance which is unlikely then I will look for the market to hold above 118.70 and if we fail to hold then Ill probably do nothing and just watch from the sidelines as the market will be re-entering no mans land again. Finaly if we open in the middle of no mans land then Ill do nothing till the picture clears up, or Ill trade a stock that is strong in a stock specific environment. Today is Friday and there aren't any major news reports coming so we might not have a catalyst to break the market out of its range .

Longs:

DAL: A long with room to go. IPT at 14.00

DOW: A long with room to go. IPT at 31.60

DD: A long that formed a bullish flag on the daily.

Breakouts:

HD> 42.15

COST> 64.00

MRK> 37.50

ADM> 33.60

AMGN>58.50

TJX>45.40

BBY> 42.70

Shorts:

NEM: Weak stock with room to go. IPT at 58.45 then at 57.00

SNDK: A sell short that clost below all its major moving averages. The volume on the down day was also above average signaling the weakness in SNDK

Breakdown:

CHK < 21.67

ABX < 44.80. IPT at 44.10 then at 43.85

AU< 45

KGC< 17.40

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Technology Sector Possible Top

Heres a chart of the XLK the technology ETF.

Thursday's Game Plan

Rarely does a market go straight up or down, recently the SPY has been sporadic to say the least. The market has been chopping around on an daily basis and the question remains whether the market is begining to signal distribution? Or is it just pulling back? I wont speculate on the direction just yet as the chart is obviously telling me that we are still in a strong up move. Nothing has changed yet, but I'll keep an eye on the current range of 118.50 - 116.00 as I believe that its the extreme range of the the past 5 days of price action. 

UAL: A long that had a major upmove yesterday. IPT. 28.70.

UNH: A long that blasted right past resistance yesterday after it had been stalling for a while. Had a strong close and I expect strength to continue.

COP: A long that formed a bullish fuel candle on the daily.

Breakouts:

BBY> 42.80 again tested the level and failed to go higher but it didnt go much lower as well. Ill be waiting for price to blast through that level then look for a pause to enter.

TRV > 54.80 on the chart it looks like a triple top. If it goes through and holds then TRV is an agressive long.

CVX> 84.78

T> 28.70 IPT at 29 then at 29.40

Shorts:

NEM: Formed a bearish reversal candle on the daily charts yesterday after failing at resistance at 61.00. IPT 58.50

CHK: Inside day yesterday after declining for 6 continuous days. The inside day was a melted candle and might have been some profit taking in yesterdays rally. A break below yesterdays inside day could be a sweet trade.

BK: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 25.12.

LEN: A sell short after yesterdays price action. IPT at 13.85.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Wednesday's Game Plan

Longs:

KO: A long on a solid uptrend.

Breakouts:

NTAP > 51.50 Price has to hold above this level for NTAP to be considered.

EBAY: Held at support yesterday and bounced. Formed an intraday bullish U-Turn.

Shorts:

LOW: A sell short. IPT 20.45

WFC: Formed a bearsih U-Turn pattern yesterday intraday at resistance that was previous support. Has alot of room to the downside. IPT at 23.65

COST: Held below previous support which has now become resistance. Has alot of room to the downside after 20 SMA crossed over 10 EMA . IPT 61.50

NUE: A sell short after yesterdays price action.

NEM: Weak sotck that gapped below its range for the since September 14th. IPT 58.40.

BAC: A sell short with alot of room.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

Yesterday the SPY had a strong day closing strong but the volume on the rise was below average with 141 million shares being traded. The rise came with the strong rebound in the XLF sector after it probably had some short covering. XLK also had a good day closing above its key resistance level. If the SPY opens above yesterday and holds ill be agressive with my entries entering after 9.45. However, if the market starts  coming in ill be cautious and ill look for a trade in my short list. If we open inside yesterday ill wait price to determine where it wants to go before entering, my target will be the high or the low of yesterday. My third scenario is if we open below yesterday, Ill be looking to buy if we come back into yesterdays range and Ill be looking to sell if we hold below yesterday targeting 116.80 as the next support then 115.65.

Longs:

AMGN: A long that again makes the long list today after a massive rally yesterday. IPT is at 58.35.

TRV: A long. IPT at 54.85.

HPQ: Strong stock that took out its key resistance level at 43.15 yesterday and held. IPT at 43.80 then at 46.00.

DD: A long that took out its range for the past 8 days.

BRCM: A long with room to go. IPT at 38.50

Breakouts:

ADM > 33.60

BBY> 42.65, IPT 44.20.

TJX> 45.40.

Shorts:

AKAM: Bearish flag on the daily and closed weak yesterday. A move below 45 could spark some selling.

LOW: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 20.45

WFC: A sell short as long as it remains below 25. Yesterday we might have seen some short covering in the rally but this stock is still weak and should be only be looked at as a short.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Monday's Game Plan

New week ahead with earning reports underway. On Friday we had a divergence in the market as the QQQQ closed 2% above the SPY and DIA. This was mainly due to the strong tech sector. XLK and SMH are both approaching key resistance areas but are strong. Meanwhile XLF tumbled on Friday which mainly caused the SPY to close way behind the QQQQ. Looking at the daily charts, the SPY formed a swing low after a momentum push and should prices go above 118.50 the next target is 119 then 120.70. To the down side, key support is at 116.75, the support of the SPY for the past two days. Should the market hold below this level then that would signal weakness. If we open below this level but fail to hold and come back above it then that would be an excellent opportunity to be long as we are still in a bull market.

Longs:

HAL: A long and following the strong XLE sector. XLE still has way to go to get to its key resistance area at 62.30 and that could also mean that HAL has alot of room as it has been outperforming the XLE.

ORCL: A long thats following the QQQQ and NASDAQ. This stock is strong and has room to go.

PM: Remains an A long its still in an obvious uptrend.

BRCM: A long with room to go. IPT at 38.50

COP: A long with room to go after it took out its key resistance level at 60.55.

MCD: A long above yesterdays close with room to go.

Breakouts:

AMGN> 56.90. IPT 58.30

BBY: > 42.70.IPT 44.20

HPQ> 43.15. IPT 43.90

DD> 47.00

SLB> 65.00

ADM> 33.50 IPT 43.10 with resistance going back to July 2008.

Shorts:

AXP: A sell short. It formed a bearish fuel candle after on its bullback. IPT at 38.75, second IPT at 37.90.

WFC: A sell short. IPT at 23.40, second IPT at 23.00

JPM: A sell short. IPT at 36.60, second IPT at 35.60.

BAC: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 11.30

COF: A sell short: IPT at 36.75, second IPT at 36.20.

Breakdowns:

AUY< 11.15, IPT 10.80.

LEN< 15.20. IPT 14.65.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Friday, October 15, 2010

Friday's Game Plan

The SPY was choppy yesterday beginning the day with an up move then a down move with steep pullbacks and then proceeded to retrace 60% of its down move at 3:00. I expect a choppy day to develop if we trade within the 118.55-116.72 levels. If we trade outside of those ranges then I expect a trend day to develop. Today's is also options expiration's, another reason to believe the day will be choppy and should be avoided. Ill not be active today unless the market is clearly in one direction as I don't have an edge in choppy conditions. If I do trade then it will only be during the morning session.

Longs:

MCD: It broke out of long term resistance with conviction and volume. I expect it to continue today.

SBUX: A long with room to go.

Breakouts:

TRV: > 53.75. I need to see ti breakout and hold above that level before entering.

COST: < 62.75. IPT is at 61.90 after that level.

MGM: < 11.50 would be the breakdown level in MGM. The next level is at 11.10. The only problem here is that this sector has been really strong.

Shorts:

WFC: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 23.80

BAC: A sell short with support being at 12.18.

* Few stocks make my list today as there aren't many stock in my list that look obvious at the moment.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Thursday's Game Plan

The market took out key levels yesterday but didn't take then out with conviciton. The SPY barely breached its level then retraced forming a bearish u-turn. The QQQQ's also also acted in a similar way, slightly breaching the level then coming back in. The market seems like its running low on fuel. I dont expect to get a trend day today. We might be forming a short term top right here. Momentum shorts might be in play today.

Longs:

SLB: A long that acted strong yesterday after it followed the strong XLE sector. IPT 66.25.

AU: A long on this gold stock after it broke out of key resistance yesterday.

HAL: Gaped above long term resistance and held above it. It even close positive for the day, and like any other stock in the XLE sector this stock was strong yesterday and should follow through if we get strength today.

BRCM: A long with room to go with resistance being at 38.50, 1.15 dollars away.

INTU: A long making new highs. Has room to go.

SBUX: Rebounded yesterday to close strong a perform a bullish u turn. A long that has room to go with the next IPT at 27.55 then 28.50

Breakouts:

COST: A breakdown below 62.80 is the likely scenario in COST after it form an exhaustion on the 6th .

MET: Failed in its breakouts to the downside. All moving averages are consolidating and this stock is bracing itself for a breakout to the upside.

BAC: Break down below 13.05 on this stock that is about to become an A sell short.

Shorts:

AKAM: Failed to close above its range of the past 4 days and came back in. IPT at 43.70.

LOW: Weak stocked that declined yesterday. Has room to go and IPT at 21.30 which is the 50 DMA.

AMGN: Weak stock that has room to go. IPT 54.40.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Wednesday's Game Plan

The market performed a bullish tail intraday yesterday and reversed after it opened lower. Prices were rejected at lower levels and the SPY rallied and was strong yesterday, it closed right below its 117.50 resistance level. Price might stall at this level for a while before blasting right past through it. My conviction remains bullish till prover otherwise.


Longs:

SBUX: Blasted right past its key resistance for the past 3 months and closed strong for the day. A long on all time frames with the neext IPT being at: 28.50.

UAL: A long that performed well yesterday and closed strong. Has alot of room to go.

USB: Blasted right past its 22.50 key level and has room to go. IPT at 23.60.

INTU: A long that took out key resistance at 46.45 and closed strong. The stock has all the room in the world to the upside as it has taken out historical highs.

ALTR: A long that formed a bullish fuel candle at support on the daily. IPT at 30.60 then at 31.00.

SNDK: A long that took out key resistance and held yesterday. IPT at 40.70 then at 42.00.

NTAP: > 49 would be nice as the next IPT after would at 51.25.

ABT: A long that took out long term resistance levels at 53.25. The resistance goes back to April 20 2010.


DOW: Formed a bullish reversal candle right at the support level it broke out from. The level goes back to the flash crash. This indicates that the stock is still strong and is just taking a breather before moving again.



Breakouts:

QCOM: A long that has room to go above 45. IPT at 45.60.

PM: A long above 57.20. The stock also formed a cup and handle pattern on the hourly.

HAL: Again tested the 35.20 level and failed to get past it. This level wont hold forever if it gets tested time and time again.


Shorts:

LOW: Sold off pretty on some pretty high volume yesterday even as the market was rising. 22.00 is support and if its taken out this stock has some room to go. I mainly picked this stock due to its relative weakness compared to the market and if the market comes in, ill be looking at LOW.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

On monday we got another griding up move. The day was really choppy on very low volume. We are yet to test the 117.50 in the SPY and it seems like its taking forever to get there. It also feels like the markets are running out of fuel, hence the choppy action. Overall the market is stalling, with no clear conviction in either direction. A correction might be on the horizon as bulls seem to be weakening. In addition, many stocks are begining to form 1-2-3 tops on the daily and the EUR/USD is also acting weak before the open today.

Longs:

DOW: A long even after the market formed a bullish flag on the daily right above the key 29.85 level. IPT at 30.80.

JNPR: A long that formed 2 daily bullish U turns prior to yesterday. Strong stock with yesterdays high being the first IPT at 32.00 then 42.80 as the next IPT.

LEN: A long that held yesterday above its key 16.00 level.

TWC: A long that took out its daily bullish flag. IPT at 57.00.

Shorts:

AKAM: A sell short. IPT at 43.00

PRU: A sell short below 53.20. IPT at 52.20

Breakouts:

DAL: the stock is an A sell short with major resistance at 11.15.

HAL: A long that is testing its 35.10 level for the third time. It can break through. IPT at 38.50 on the weekly charts.

HON: A long that has formed 3 inside days in a row.

USB: All moving averages withing 2 inside days. If it picks a direction expect it to explode.

BAC: < 13.05 is the level I am watching . IPT is at 12.60.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Monday's Game Plan

The SPY traded on another below average volume day on Friday which was the day of the NFP  report release. The day saw the NASDAQ or the QQQQ's ETF lag before the SPY and DIA. That sent the market slightly downward at the open as the divergence played its toll on the markets for about an hour until the market formed a bullish U turn intraday. What was notable was that when the QQQQ's caught  up the entire market followed as all the ETF's were in sync and pointing up, the market rallied as a result.
Looking at the daily SPY, theres still room to go with the next major resistance level being at 117.50, however the QQQQ is still in consolidation. Its 49.80 level was tested and rejected again. If we manage to take out this level then expect it to be a bullish day as the QQQQ's are the lagging ETF out of the three and if it rallies then the market should follow. Should it fail to take out the highs again expect it to drag the market down again which would result in choppy action.

Longs:

MGM: Major up day on Friday on this stock where it went up 15%. The stock has room to go and I expect follow through to the massive up day. My first IPT would be 14.15 then 15.

DOW: A long with room to go after it too out its 29,85 resistance level. IPT at 30.85

UAL: A long with room to go. Ill look for a preferable r/r entry in this stock.

SUN: A long and finally broke out with conviction on Friday. I expect follow through if the market is strong. IPT is at 40.80 which is a 1.57 dollars away.

TXN: A long and is another strong SMH stock that followed through. It took took out its pause on the daily timeframe after it broke out of a significant level. Looking at the weekly chart the stock took out its 27.50 level with above average volume and that's what you want to see in a breakout. Next IPT goes back to July 2008 at 29.40.

ABX: A long on this gold stock. Holding well so far after it broke out of its historical highs and has alot of potential. First IPT at 49.00. then it has alot of room after that level.

EMC: A long that formed both a swing low and bullish reversal at the same time. Has alot of room to the upside with the next IPT at 20.45.

ORCL: A long that closed at the highs after it broke out of its bullish flag. I cant find the next IPT on the daily and weekly so I used the monthly went back to 2002 where the IPT was at 30.60. ORCL has potential.

NTAP: A long that formed a swing low and a bullish U turn on the daily. IPT at 51.00 which is a long way from where it is right now.

DD: A long and a stock that has been showing consistent strength.

KLAC: A long that traded on ultra high volume on friday. The stock formed a massive daily bullish U turn.

ALTR: A long and another stock that formed a bullish U turn. ALTR bounced off of support which was previous resistance after it broke out and has alot of room to go to the upside if it can clear 29.60

Breakouts:

SNDK: > 39.90 is the level. Should it take it out the next IPT is at 42.00.

HAL: Another strong day for this strong XLE stock. The stock is already an A long with major resistance at 35.20.

KSS: > 54.40. The stock is already an A long and if it takes out that level its next resistance is at 56.65 which is 2.25 dollars away.

SLB: > 63.70 on this A long. IPT 64.50 then at 66.00.

HPQ: A breakout candidate as it has been in a tight range for 6 days now. An explosive move is expected. If it breaks up then 43.00 is the next IPT. If it breaks down then 39.00 is the next IPT.

HON: > 45.85 with the next IPT at 46.60.

MCD: > 76.25 on this A long.

BBY: > 41.30. A long with room to go.

Shorts:

MS: A sell short with the next IPT being at 24.55.
After analyzing my stocks I found that tech and SMH stocks are rather strong and if they continue to demonstrate strength on Monday then ill trade them. I have no shorts for Monday as the market is giving us a direction and most stock are either strong or about to break out and become strong. Ill be watching the QQQQ's early in the day to assess the tech sector's strength. Ill also keep an eye on SMH on XLK.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Friday's Game Plan

The SPY was choppy yesterday as it gapped up to close slightly below its open. In the big picture the SPY is in a bullish pause as volume on the two down days was below average, this lack of selling indicates that the bulls still believe in the upside. However todays NFP news release will surely mix things up. We should have some volatility today that should shed some light in the upcoming move. XLK is pausing right under its 23.40 level and is still in a bullish flag while XLF declined on below average volume yesterday. The QQQQ are similar to the XLK with it pausing right below a key level. Meanwhile the DIA is holding above its key 109.50 level. Ill be watch the reaction to the NFP today and wont trade till 10:00 a.m when the market settles in a little bit.

Longs:

DD: A long with room to go after taking out yearly highs yesterday and holding above resistance. Ill be looking for a continuation of the move we saw yesterday.

SUN: A long that is holding above its 38 key level. If XLE is strong ill consider SUN.

ALTR: A long that held at support again yesterday. Ill be looking for a preferable r/r in ALTR.

DOW: A long that tested its 28.50 level yesterday after it broke out the day before. Ill be looking for a continuation.

ORCL: A long that finaly held above it broke out yesterday. It formed a melted candle right above previous resistance on the daily. On the hourly that daily melted candle looks like a pause and a reason to be long ORCL.

TXN: Tested the day before yesterdays lows and bounced. It is forming a clean daily flag and should it bounce again then ill be looking long TXN as its an A long.

Shorts:

COF: A short if it goes below yesterdays close. Has room to the downside with the next resistance being at 38.50. This stock is also a financial and that reflects the XLF's weakness.

NUE: Double top on the daily. This stock will turn into an A sell short if it trades below yesterdays close which bounced right off the 50 SMA. We could see similar action to AKAM if we break.

MS: A short that formed a swing high on the daily. It has room to go to the downside with support being at 24.70 then 24.30.



Breakouts:

BBY: Again failed to take out 41.20 yesterday after it tested it for the forth time. If this level gets taken out ill be long BBY as long as RTH is strong.

HPQ: Another inside day yesterday. If the NFP has an impact on the market today we should see HPQ break violetly in one direction, or both.

MET: Another Inside Inside Day pattern in this stock.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Thursday's Game Plan

The SPY held well yesterday and formed a melted candle on the daily after a strong move up the day before. Yesterdays price action in the SPY was a sign of strength especial the action in the afternoon where Prices became well bid on all time frames furher emphasizing yesterdays price action as a pause in the pig picture. However, there have been some divergences among the ETF's as the QQQQ closed weaker then the SPY and the DIA closing stronger then the SPY. The QQQQ is yet to break out of its pause at 49.80, its lagging behind the leading ETF's. XLK seemed weak yesterday but the candle on the daily chart indicates that a different story is taking place as the XLK again tested its key level at 23.35 without breaching it, the more we test it the more likely we are to break it. I remain bullish after yesterdays price action, and wont consider any B shorts as the market is clearly bullish. The market would have to seriously roll over for me to look at bearish stocks.

Longs:

ABX: A long after yesterdays price action, ill be looking for a continuation at a preferable R/R area.

GE: Broke out of its daily resistance going back to May on good volume and an energy candle on the daily. IPT at 17.40.

DOW: A long with room to go. IPT at 29.90.

HON: A long with room to go after two strong up days. IPT at 46.50.

COP: A long with room to go. IPT at 60.50.

COST: A Long that fomr a major energy candle on the daily with ultra high volume after it gapped down. Buyers stepped in and hit the offers agressively This indicates strength and a clear direction and thats what I look for when trading an instrument.

Breakouts:

GG> 45.20 is the level to watch as this stock is clearly an A long. IPT at 46.

SLB> 64.70 it has room after that as the next IPT is at 66.

NTAP < 47.20 as the stock seems to have formed a 1-2-3 top on the daily. This stock should be trader though unless the XLK is weak which is the opposite of what it is right now.

Shorts:

AKAM: Another weak tech stoch that has declined even though the sectors isnt that weak when looking at the XLK. Before trading this stock it should be wise to wait for it to clear 43.20 first.

ADBE: A sell short that has some room to go. Again it should only be traded if markets roll over and XLK is weak.

AXP: A sell shor that seems to have bottomed out at 37.33. If I trade this stock ill target a retest of the 37.33 low as this stock is clearly weak and should only be considered short till it proves otherwise.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

AXP American Express

Here we have a chart of American Express. The stock demonstrated climatic action yesterday after it trade 68.4 million shares. The stock declined even though the market closed strong yesterday. Has AXP bottomed out?

Wednesday's Game Plan

Almost the entire market went up yesterday after taking out key resistance levels. Today ill be looking for the SPY to hold above the key 115 level. If we open lower ill be looking for a test of the 115 level if we continue going down, yesterday low will be my next target. If we open higher ill be waiting for price to hold its new level at and take out its opening range. The market is bullish with alot of stocks in the list being either strong or are about to break out.

Longs:

JNPR: A long with room to go, next IPT on the weekly charts is at 34.90.

SUN: Broke out of its range yesterday and closed right back at where it broke out from. If it holds today then SUN is an A long.

TXN: A long with room to go IPT at 29.30

HON: A long that took out a key resistance level yesterday and has alot of room to go. IPT at 46.

HAL: Another A long with room to go. IPT at 35.25.

COP: A long with room to go. 60.50 being the next IPT

TWC: A long with room to go. IPT at 57.20

Breakouts:

NTAP: A long  which is forming a bullish flag on the daily. If the 51.30 level gets taken out theres alot of room for NTAP.

DD: A long that has also been forming a bullish flag on the daily. 45.85 is the level to watch.XLB was also strong yesterday and that demonstrates DD strength.

CVX: At a key resistance level at 83.40 if it takes it out then theres alot of room to the upside.

AU: A gold stock that is at key resistance at the moment. 47.50 being the line in the sand.


Shorts:

ADBE: A  short that didnt bounce yesterday with the rest of the market. If the market turns around today ADBE should be considered.

AXP: Climatic action yesterday after 68.4 million shares were traded. Still an A short but I would not trade this stock unless that market is showing obvious weakness.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

The QQQQ's, DIA and SPY are all at key levels that that could send this entire market down in the case of these levels being breached. If the key 113.20 level in the SPY gets breached then 112 is the next level to watch. If prices test these levels and bounce then its bullish as we are in a bullish flag, but its also a reason to be cautious as these key levels have been tested a couple of times and thats a reason to believe that price will go through eventually. Markets aren't clear and its wise to wait for it to play its hand and show us the direction of the big players through order flow. Market internals will play a part in giving us hints on which side is stronger. I will be careful though as theres no way we can trade in one direction with conviction and that tells me that we have a mixed picture, again its wise to wait for the market to play itself out before trying to guess which side is stronger and jumping in.

Longs:

JNPR: A long which formed a bullish u turn on the daily, IPT is at 31.50

BRCM: 34.40 is the level that BRCM failed to breach for the past 4 days. My first IPT would be the 4 days high at 35.95. I also expect this level to be taken out if tested.

TWC: A long with an IPT at 55.70.

VZ: Again tested the 33.10 level and failed today. Ill be waiting for this level to be taken out as this stock is an A long.

WMT: Along that formed a bullish flag on the daily and failed to take out the 53.10 level on 5 different days where it tested the level and bounced.


Breakouts:

SUN: Remains a strong candidate to break out as it has been pausing for the 3 straight days at that 36.80 key level.

Shorts:

AMR: A sell short aproaching a key level at 5:85. If price pauses at this level or takes it out and pauses it should be an agressive sell short.

ADBE: A sell short with an 80 cent profit target.

UNH: B sell short that failed at resistance. This stock has room to go despite it being a B sell short. If market rolls over UNH should be considered.

INTC < 18.75 which is a key level for this A sell short.  The only problem with this stock is its sector. XLK has been strong and if XLK persists then INTC shouldnt drop that hard. On the other hand if XLK starts rolling over. INTC is an A sell short.

WLP: Formed a 1-2-3 top on the daily with room to go. Next support and IPT is at 54.

SNDK: A short below 36.

COF: A sell short with room to go with the next IPT being 38 then 37.50.

DIS: Formed a brearish flag on the daily and has been forming melted candles ever since. Possibly signaling a lack of buyers. This stock can easily be an A sell short with an IPT down at 32.70.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Monday's Game Plan

SPY: On friday closed off on friday almost exactly where it left off. Volume was low and the day was choppy. XLF closed strong and XLK closed slightly weak but its still holding under resistance. XLK has been holding the market up recently with XLF being rather weak, if XLF decides to join the party then we could be set for an up move. If the market fails to go up though the level that ill be watching is the 113 level in the SPY. Another important observation was that XLE and OIH were the strongest on friday indicating that money was going into that sector.


Longs:

BHI: Closed strong in fridays weak market. The stock and its sector OIH demonstrated relative strength on Friday. If the market permits, BHI is a strong stock to be considered long.

VZ: An A long that has formed a bullish flag on the daily with room to go.

UNH: Another strong stock on the daily that has formed a bullish flag that is an A long

COST: Has been very strong and is forming a daily flag on the hourly. This stock alot of room to the upside.

TXN: 27.50 is the level , it tested and failed to breach it on friday. It then recollected itself and closed above the lows indicating that the 27.50 could be tested and taken out again.

BBY: A long with room to the upside.


Shorts:

USB: Obviously below its 50 and 200 DMA's and is forming a bearish flag on the daily. Depending on market conditions and R/R an entry in USB short is good as long as markets decline.

PRU: A sell short with room to go to the downside. Stock formed a 1-2-3 top on the hourly and that only demonstrates the stocks weakness.If XLF declines this stock should be one of the first stocks to fall. As the volume was also pretty high on its last two down days.


Breakouts:

DAL: > 12 as its entire sector the FAA is about to breakout of its range since April.

AU: > 47.50 as that level would act as a launching pad for this stock to the upside.

ABX> 47.50 ascending triangle on the daily.

BAC < 13.10 would make this stock an A sell short.

TWC> 54.85

COP> 58 is the level with an IPT 58.40.It may be worthwhile to wait for 58.40 to be taken out first.

SUN> 36.90 is the line in the sand here for SUN. IPT being 38.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Friday's Game Plan

SPY: Formed an outside bearish bar with high volume. We could sell off today but one day of weakness in a bullmarket isnt a reason to go be long. We are back in the range we broke out of. We are in B territory here. Only A trades should be considered.

Longs:

QCOM: Held well in the face of yesterdays bearish market ill be looking for the stock to hold above 45.

BBY: A long stock with an IPT of 42.50.

TXN: > 27.40 Ill be waiting for a pause above or under this level to intiate a trade as a straight breakout isn't  worth it in this condition.

Shorts:

ADM: Below < 32. This stock formed a 1-2-3 top on the daily but is stil above the major moving average.

JPM: Below 38 with an IPT of 37.50 then 36.70