Friday, October 28, 2011

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: NTAP

Breakouts: X>25.00, WFC >27.50, JNPR>25.50, PM>72.50, GG>48.75, ED>59.90, COST>86.00.

Shorts: MS (14.00), JPM (37.00), DD(49.00), COF (47.00), HON (54.00), KLAC (48.00), SBUX,

Notes:

Any saturation plays should be looked at as counter trend pull backs in this environment. Market looks exhausted at this point, buying now is buying late.

XLB-XLF-XLI Strongest
XLV-XLU-XLK Weakest...(Defensive sectors down after the environment changed to risk on)

EUR/USD Inside yesterdays massive range after the the summit where the EU agreed on how to save themselves.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: MCD, ORCL

Breakouts: PM>70.50, DD>45.50, CHK>28.00, VLO>24.00, (IDB R=85.30 S=84.30), M>30.50, JPM>34.00,

Shorts: ADBE (27.50), TJX (60.00), ALTR (37.00)

Notes:

DIA (Strongest), SPX (nd Strongest due to financials), QQQ (2nd after the strong tech sector)

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: COST

Breakouts: TJX>58.50, MCD>91.00, JCP (IDB R=31.80 S=31.00), WAG (IDB R=34.00, 33.00),
KSS (IDB R=52.70 S=51.90), CPX>31.50, SWN (IDB R=40.25 S=39.40), RIMM<22.20,

Notes:

SPY possible three drives pattern on the hourly 119.00 is the breakdown level. A break and hold above 123.50 would invalidate the idea.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: SBUX

Breakouts: CPX>31.50, JNPR>22.00, VLO>24.00, GG>48.50, SLW (IDB R= 32.20 S=31.50), EBAY>34.00, NVDA>16.00, WLP>68.00, UTX (IDB R=75.00 S=74.00), JCP<29.50, JNJ>64.75, KSS (IDB R=50.50 S= 49.00).

Shorts: CIEN (12.50), SWN (39.00),

Friday, October 14, 2011

Fridays Gameplan

Breakouts: NVDA>16.00, SNDK>46.50, CPX>29.50, IAG>20.50, ARUN>24.00, TWC>70.00, KLAC (IDB R=44.00 S=43.50), M IDB (R=28.80 S= 28.00), PCAR>39.00, ADBE>26.25, NTAP (IDB R=39.25 S=38.50), DIS (IDB R=33.75 S=33.25),

Notes:

No obvious shorts and longs today, most of my plays are either IDB's or breakots. I will let the market tell me where it wants to go today as it has been choppy here recently and given today is a Friday, I will trade with caution.

The level to watch in the SPY is the 122.00 to the upside and 119.00 to the downside.

XLK-XLY-XOP Strong

XLF-XLB Weak

EUR/USD 3 day high at 1.3830, if taken out next resistance at 1.3950.

Premarket markets are poised for a higher opening.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: CPX

Breakouts: DIS>34.00, PCAR>39.00, arun>24.00, NTAP (IDB R=39.00 S=38.25), AKAM (IDB R=23.75 S=23.00), SO (IDB R=43.00 S=42.50), WLP>68.00, RIMM>24.50

Shorts: C (30.00), SLW (33.00), AET (38.00), SBUX>42.00

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: XOM

Breakouts: C>28.25, BBY>26.00, HAL>35.75, SLW>31.75, SBUX>42.00, M>28.00, HON>48.00, ADBE>26.00, SO>43.00, COH (IDB R=59.80 S= 58.60), ARUN>24.00, KLAC>43.00

Shorts: AXP (46.00), DOW (27.00)

Notes:

XLK, XRT, XOP, XLE, OIH - Strongest sectors

XLF - Weakest

XLP, XLV, GLD - Weakens as risk appetite grows

TLT on the verge of a breakdown below 116.00 signaling that bonds are about to sell off, while the DX dollar index is also about to re-enter its previous range in support of more risk apetite.

SPY about to break its upper trendline from the 31st of August after touching it 9 times.

Given the facts above, the market seems to be at an inflection point.

Best idea: BBY

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Sundays Gameplan

Breakouts: DPS >39.00, HON >46.00, NTAP >38.75, COST (IDB R= 69.70 S= 68.70), TWC >68.30, SNDK >44.00, JPM <30.70, C<24.50

Shorts: KLAC (42.00), JCP (29.00)

Notes:

Strong sectors still leading during up days and defensive sectors lead during down days with the financials still weak.

The levels I will be watching in the SPY are 115.00 and 117.00 as support and resistance. Should the market penetrate and of those two levels then I expect to see continuation.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: HAL, SLW (31.20 being the flag level and being the PBZ)

Breakouts: CIEN (HBO 12.00), NVDA >14.25, TWC >68.40, AKAM >23.00, SNDK >44.00, COST <68.50 Shorts: COH (57.00 - 200 SMA - with 58.00 being the PSZ), MS (Weak sector - 3 day saturation 15.50 being the level to watch - 3 up days on declining volume and range with volume being above average - this could go sideways), WFC (3 day saturation - PSZ - 25.50), JCP (Saturation in a bear flag after two pin bars at the top of the price range)

Notes:

NFP

Should the SPY open higher, I will be looking for at my saturations and breakout trades. Should the SPY open lower, I will be looking at yesterdays high and potential breakout trades, if it heads lower after opening lower I will be looking at break down trades and shorts.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Thursday Gameplan

Longs:

Breakouts: AKAM>23.00, XOM>74.50, COH>53.50, AXP (IDB R=43.50 S= 42.60), JCP>28.00,

Shorts: UAL 19.00, SWN 36.00, PCAR 35.75, DD, HAL

Notes:

Saturation shorts are my play for the day, we are in a bear market and we have a two day rise in equities with the second day being below average. My second play are breakouts in those stocks that are approaching key levels where if taken out could see clean price action.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Wednesdays Gameplan

Breakouts: DPS<36.50, XOM>75.00, CIEN>10.75, KSS>50.00, EBAY>29.50, UNH>43.00, JCP>28.50

Notes:

No edge here, we will probably get a short covering rally that won't be sustainable for long.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: IAG 18.50, SBUX 36.00 & 200SMA, KLAC 37.00, ABT 50.00 & 200SMA, NTAP 33.50

Breakouts: UNH <41.00, JPM<28.50, EBAY<27.00, TRV<26.50, WFC<22.65, KSS<47.50, COH<50.60, WAG (IDB R=33.10 S=32.50), SLW <29.00

Shorts: CIEN, C, AET

Notes:

Market could be getting oversold at this stage, however, it is important to note that we are in a bearish market and any longs taken should be taken with extreme caution. Longs should only be considered on sectors that are demonstrating relative strength and on stocks that form a bottoming out pattern.

Strongest sectors: XLU - XLK - XLV
Weakest sectors: XLB- XLF - XLI

I expect to see noise at the open again today, as bears and bulls fight it out. Clean moves have tended to occur after the hour and a half of trading.

Premarket everything is down, except for the EUR which is slightly holding above yesterdays low at 1.3150. AUD being hit hard, and gold holding up the 1650 level.

HKHS down 4.38%

VIX about to take out previous highs at 48.00