Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs: SLW, SBUX, VLO, NVLS, CDE, PM (74.50), WDC

Breakouts: LVS>49.75, WFC (R=29.30 S=29.00), TRV<57.50, ANR (R=21.30 S=20.70), C (R=30.50 S=30.00),LULU>64.50, WLP(R=65.00 S=64.00), ALTR (R=40.00 S=39.50), SNDK (R=46.50 S=45.50)

Shorts: UAL (23.00), RIMM (17.00)

Notes:

I took out JNPR cause it doesnt look too good. AXP was also taken out as a breakdown trade after I found that the 200 SMA was just around the corner and would justify the r/r ratio, the 50 SMA also 50 cents below the 200 SMA.

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: UAL, JCP, COST (81.00), KO(67.00),TAL (33.75), PM (75.00), GG (O.F)

Breakouts: SLW>36.00, CDE>29.00,SWN (R=32.75 S=31.00), LULU>64.50, UNH<50.25, LVS>50.50, COF>46.25, HON>58.50, SNDK<45.50, AMGN>69.50, WDC (R=37.25 S=26.50), INTC (R=26.85 S=26.60), LOW (R=27.15 S=26.75), ALTR (R=40.50 S=40.00)

Shorts: POT (47.50), JCP (42.00)

Notes:

IWM>QQQ>SPY>DIA

I expect the market to be stock specific today as we have 3 market moving indicators prior to the open (Core PCE, Personal Spending and Personal Income).

The market is poised to open lower today, I expect my stocks in the XLP sector to perform well today due to risk aversion along with my setup in TAL which is part of the strong XHB sector.

Swing Long Gold from 26/1/2012 Thoughts

Here are some thoughts from my swing trades in gold that day:

There was a mark up in price on the 25th of Jan 2011. This markup was an engulfing candle taking out the daily ranges going back to the 14th of Dec 2011.

This markup usually signifies the end of an accumulation phase, it was quite as almost no-one traded it. Gold continued to surge thereafter to close as the strongest sector for the week.

The surge was after the FOMC meeting that the Fed would keep rates unchanged through 2014, however, I believe that this news release was just a trigger that the buyers were waiting for after accumulating the precious metal. It probably would have gone up regardless because everyone knew what was coming.

We got confirmation on the validity of the move after we had a narrow day in our stocks on above average volume, this told me that the sellers were being kept at bay and that the buyers were participants with deep pockets (look at the pennant on the 5 minute chart of GG)

On Friday was got an open below Thursdays close where the stock was bought heavily to give us another engulfing candle that saw follow through to the upside to provide us with further evidence of the move.

Gold might churn a bit here, to pick up some breath. My bias is bullish gold and I would probably give it the most attention this week, with that in mind my stops will be present as my anything could happen in the market.

Bridgewater Bearish AUD/USD 2012 Prediction

Ray Dalio is bearish AUD/USD along with other emerging currencies...Why? Below are some thoughts:

1) If Ray thinks the AUD will go down along with other emerging nations, he probably believes China will go through a hard landing.

2) If China go into recession, demand for metals will go down sending the AUD/USD down.

3) China is also the 2nd country after the USA in terms of GDP, should their demand for metals go down then that should affect the currencies of other emerging countries whose exports to China would fall hence sending their currencies down; it’s a game of supply and demand.

4) EUR going into a recession might not affect the US much but China would definitely feel some pain.

5) AUD/USD is a pair that is extremely sensitive to news from China. AUD/USD is also a pair that reflects global equities health, should the pair crash then that shouldn't be too positive for global equities.

6) Technically, the AUD/USD is in a weekly distribution base. A breakdown could cause mayhem.

7) This will especially have adverse effects on steel and basic materials which is already lagging (SPY/XME).

P.S. Bridgewater is also bullish gold which is pretty obvious with all the central banks printing, he sees inflation thus buying gold as a hedge.

Fridays Gameplan

Breakouts: JCP>41.00, UAL>22.00, POT>46.00, COF (R=46.24 S=44.75), ALTR>41.00, LULU>64.50, cde>28.75, TAL>34.75,LVS>50.50, GG (NR7 R=49.00 S=48.15).

Notes:

UAL (???)

Global equities and currencies relatively flat. Unless theres a huge upset in todays GDP number, I dont expect to see much volatility. I expect the to see the market chop back and forth especially given the fact that todays a Friday.

Few setups today reflect my conviction in the market at the moment. I really can't guess where we are headed today.

Thursday's Gameplan

Longs: X (O.F),FCX (O.F), DD (O.F), AMGN (O.F), ALTR (O.F),

Breakouts: CDE>28.75, LVS>50.50, SWN>32.75, SNDK>53.00, LULU>64.50, MOS>56.30 (HBO), COF<44.75, VIAB>49.00, JDSU>13.85, MS<17.60, JPM (R=37.85 S=37.10),TAL>34.75,

Shorts: DNDN (15.00), TJX (68.00),

Swing longs: NEM (PBZ), GG (PBZ), SLW (DZ), CDE (DZ),

Notes:

GLD very strong, QQQ new highs, VIX@18.00, SPY strong, TLT weak, EUR flat.

IBB & XHB again leading the way along with the outperforming GLD. SMH & XLF amongst the worst performers wtih commodities mostly strong.

I personally expect to see some volatility today after the FOMC yesterday, with the FED willing to keep rates low through 2013 to 2014 is bullish for stocks, my breakout trades will be key today. Should we get unexpected selling, I will be looking at my short plays.

X & FCX

Economic Indicators:

5:30pm USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
[Open Detail]
0.9%
0.3%
[Open Chart]
Up Next 5:30pm USD

Unemployment Claims
[Open Detail]
371K
352K
[Open Chart]
Up Next 5:30pm USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m
[Open Detail]
2.1%
3.7%
[Open Chart]
7:00pm USD

New Home Sales
[Open Detail]
321K
315K

Wednesdays Gameplan

Longs: CIEN (O.F), PCAR (O.F), TAL (O.F)

Breakouts: HAL>36.75 (HBO), X>(29.00), ALTR>41.00, TSO>25.00, CHK>22.50 (HBO), FCX>44.50 (HBO&200 SMA), ESRX (IDB R=51.80 S=51.00), COST>82.00, LULU (IDB R=62.30 S=61.30), AKAM (IDB R=31.50 S=31.00), UNH<51.50 (HBO), TRV<58.00 (HBO)

Shorts: NVDA(15.30 & 200 SMA), INTC (27.00), NEM (O.F)

Notes:

HKSE is on the verge of breaking out.

SPY has consolidated for 4 days after making 50 day highs with a head and shoulders pattern emerging from the hourly chart.

AAPL record profits at 46 billion when comparted to estimated 38, this should cause the SPY and the QQQ to gap above today.Will we get a case of buy the rumor and sell the news today? We could.

IIB & RTH and XHB are still very strong industries, with XHB on the verge of making new highs.

DX index closed at support and at the 50 SMA a close below on good volume should be good for the market (SPY-QQQ-DIA).

Economically, we have the FOMC meeting today along with pending home sales report which will affect the XHB.

Longs:INTC (O.F),LOW (O.F), ALTR (39.50), JNPR (22.50), RIMM (15.25)

Breakouts: LULU>62.50, X>28.75, FCX(IDB R=44.00 S=43.00), CDE>@7.00, COST>81.81, COF (IDB R=46.20 S=45.50), NEM<58.75, SNDK>53.00,

Shorts: KO (68.50)

Notes:

JNPR

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: INTC (O.F), TRV (O.F), FCX (43.00)

Breakouts: EBAY>32.00, SWN>29.75 (HBO), JPM>37.50, DD (IDB R= 49.70 S= 49.20), CDE (IDB R=26.75 S= 26.00), PCAR>44.50, NEM (IDB R= 60.15 S= 58.95), ALTR>40.75, NTAP>37.50, AKAM<31.50

Shorts: WDC (34.65), XOM (87.50)

Notes:

XLF on the verge of a breakout.

GLD hourly HBO at 162.00.

VIX@ 18.28

Longs: MOS (53.50)

Breakouts: NTAP>38.00, JCP>36.00, HAL>36.85,PCAR>44.25, JPM>37.00, AXP (IDB R=51.00 S=50.25), SBUX (IDB R=48.00 S= 47.70), AMGN (R=69.50 S=68.75) CDE>37.00, LULU<60.00 (HBO), Shorts:NVDA (14.50), KLAC (51.50), XOM (67.00), HON (58.50), X>29.00

Notes:

Today is options expiration, expect some choppy price action back and forth, IDB and breakout trades might be pretty choppy. If the market doesn't demonstrate clear order flow, I bail out early.

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: PM (72.50), MOS (54.00), MCD, TJX, LRCX, MS

Breakouts: PCAR>43.50, AKAM (IDB R=32.50 S=32.00), XOM>86.50 (HBO),SWN>30.00, SNDK>52.50,JPM>37.00,JDSU>12.75, ALTR>40.75

Shorts: TSO (24.50), VLO (23.50),

Notes:

QQQ on the verge of taking out multiyear highs

SMH - XHB - IBB - RTH strongest

Tuesdays Gameplan

Longs:JDSU, KLAC (47.75), HAL (33.50), NVDA (13.70), CHK (21.00 weekly support).

Breakouts: SWN (IDB R=29.50 S=29.00), GG>46.50 (HBO), MOS>55.25 (HBO), ESRX>49.30 (200 SMA & HBO), TAL (IDB R=33.20 S=32.65), UNH>53.50, CIEN>15.00.

Shorts: LULU (62.00 PSZ & resistance), DD (48.50).

Swing short: INTC

Notes:

SWN: A move below yesterdays low and a failure to remain low could result in an explosive move to the upside.

Energy seems to be saturating.

Three drives pattern in INTC, an hourly close below the PSZ would indicate a sell signal. INTC is also in one of the weak performing sectors at the moment (XLK). However, the market seems to be setting up for a bull market. This move is counter to the overall sentiment and should be treated with caution. Stops should be maintained abaove 25.80.

CHK has weekly support at 21.00

TAL There are three key housing reports that will be released this week: January homebuilder confidence on Wednesday, December housing starts on Thursday, and December existing home sales on Friday.

Key resistance in the SPY at 129.50.

IWM holding above 200 SMA.

XHB strongest - is it due to the FED's MBS purchases? Must be.

Mondays Gameplan

Longs: KO(68.50 & 50SMA), X(26.85), LVS (42.00), COST (80.50), ABT (55.60).

Breakouts: CIEN>13.75, JDSU>11.25, UNH>53.50, NEM (R=62.50 S=61.25), MS IDB R=16.25 S=15.85).

Shorts: LULU (54.00), ESRX (49.50), DIS (40.00), VIAB (47.50), SBUX (47.00).

Notes:

I see accumulation in UAL.

Fridays Gameplan

Longs: VIAB, XOM

Breakouts: WDC>33.25, MS>16.30, ESRX>48.50, HON>56.00, RIMM (IDB R=15.30 S=15.00), COP>74.00, NTAP<34.50, POT (IDB R=43.50 S=42.70)

Shorts: NVDA (15.00), LULU (63.25 & 50% retracement level), SNDK (49.50 & 50 retracement level), ESRX (48.50), AET (44.00),SWN (33.75)

Notes:

It looks like a 50/50 bet here today, it will all depend on the NFP number. We could get a saturation short as some of these stocks look extended or we might get a violant breakout to the upside especially if the SPY manages to take out 128.50.

My four scenarios for today are:

A down open with a push down will negate all my ideas except for the IDB.

A down open with a push higher will probably trigger my breakouts which will might cause a violant breakout.

A higher open with a push lower will trigger my saturation plays.

A higher open with a push higher will trigger my breakouts.

Thursdays Gameplan

Longs: JCP, KLAC(46.00 & 50SMA), KSS (47.00), VLO (29.00)

Breakouts: SWN>33.85,ESRX>48.00, BA>74.75, VIAB>46.00, HON>56.00, PCAR<38.50 (HBO), MOS>32.50, C (IDB R=28.50, S= 27.60), ALTR<37.00, UAL<18.50, TSO (IDB R=24.25 S=23.75)

Shorts: DIS (39.00), X (29.00), FCX (40.50), JPM (35.25)

Notes:

ALTR

Choppy session ahead, I will book on momentum.

Goldman Sachs- CMG Conviction Buy, Seriously?

CMG is heading south, however, GS don't think so. They think its heading north, they added it to the conviction buy list. If we get a down day today on good volume, CMG could breakdown fast.

Wednesdays Gameplan - 2012 HERE WE COME!

Longs: TJX, KSS (47.85)

Breakouts: x>29.00, CHK>24.00 (HBO), CDE>26.00 (HBO), NEM>63.00,HON>56.00,UNH>51.75 (HBO), BA>74.75, VIAB<45.35, QCOM>55.75, TRV<58.85,

Shorts: POT (SAT@44.00 & 50 SMA), ESRX (47.25).

Notes:

VIX@23.00

USD premarket is up for the day with the EUR/USD selling off
Commodities and energy were strongest yesterday followed by the financials. The retail sector was weakest with consumor staples and discretionary selling off. SMH and tech in general was convincing yesterday with a sell off likely today.

Sentiment for the day is choppy/bearish. Any breakouts will be traded with extreme caution.