Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

Longs:

HAL
AXP
SLB
XOM
BRCM
ALTR

Breakouts:

BHI>51.10
STI<23.30
INTU<44.20
LLTC>33.25
TJX<44.90

Shorts:

MET
ABT
BA
T

Monday, November 29, 2010

Monday's Game Plan

The SPY is stuck in a range at the moment between 120.40 and 117.60. Unless the market breaks out of this range, price is currently in no mans land. Price has to break out and hold above either direction to set the tone for the next move. The QQQQ and DIA are both similar to the SPY as the both are stuck in their own ranges. The strongest two sectors being the RTH and SMH and the weakest being gold and commodity stocks as the USD rallied on Friday. The open will be crucial in assessing the upcoming day and how the market absorbed the news releases that took part this weakend.

Longs:

AKAM
SNDK
HON
BRCM
JNPR
SBUX
ALTR

Shorts:

ZION
CSCO
ABT
BMY
BA
MRK
ALL
PRU

Breakouts:

JCG>38.00
BBY>35.50
EBAY>31.20
INTU<44.20
SUN>40.60
AVP<28.40
AMGN<53.40
LLTC>33.30
AET<29.60
T<27.90
ADM<29.00
BHI>51.10

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Finaly Am Back!

I am finaly back after Omantel fixed my connection issues, so thanks to them. During my time out, I had all the time in the world to analyze my offline FX charts and heres one that I analyzed.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

Well not much has changed the SPY as its still in its range 120.40 - 119.40. The market attemped to go below 119.40 but the market rejected lower prices sending prices back into the range. This false breakout was bullish. If the market open inside this range, the market will be choppy. However, if we breakout of this level I expect to see some volatility. SMH as it a key level of resistance at 31.30 and a break could send the entire tech sector up. This being said, XLF was the weakest sector yesterday signaling a disconnect between tech and financials. When ever these two are not in sync, the market tends to become choppy.

Longs:

SNDK
HUM
JCG
BBY
BRCM
ALTR
COST
SLB
KO
USB
HAL

Breakouts:

MCD>79.90
TRV<54.50
ALL<29.60
EXPE<25.40

Shorts:

ABT
ZION

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Monday's Game Plan

Another inside day for the SPY on Friday means that little has changed. The market is still rebounding after the weak down move and could go either way. The open will be crucial to determine the intraday direction on Monday.


Longs:

BRCM

KSS

UAL

ALTR

TXN

SLB

HAL

XOM

HON

Breakouts

WLP> 59.00

URBN> 37.50

JCG> 37.50

MCD> 79.90

ABT< 47.40

BK> 28.20

Shorts:

CSCO

BA

Friday, November 19, 2010

Friday's Game Plan

The market was strong yesterday in the morning where we saw a burst in price, to then retrace most of that most of that move during the day. The market is mixed today, with options expiration being today. I expect it to be a slow day today after the morning session. EUR/USD is weak today and that might reflect on the markets.

Longs:

HAL
BHI
VLO
KO
HON
XOM
COH
JNPR

Breakouts:

BK> 28.25
TXN>31.60
KSS>54.30

Shorts:

CSCO
HD

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Thursday's Game Plan

The market is at the same position that it was before yesterday, nothing much has changed as we had a neutral inside day yesterday. The market is unclear at the moment and its best to step aside until it clears up or take out yesterdays inside day as a minimum. We are still in a bull market and any short trades will be countertrend trades.

Longs:

JCG: A long after the massive breakout yesterday.

SLW: A long that formed a swing low on the daily.

TGT: A long after its key resistance level of 55.50 was taken out with price closing at 55.62.

NOV: A long on this very strong stock. Key level at 59.80

COST: A long after yesterday strong up move. Price held really well.

URBN: A long with IPT at 38.10

SLB: A long after price bounced at the day befores low to hold at the 2 day lows. Looks like a bullish flag on the daily.

EBAY: A long that formed a bullish U-Turn yesterday even though the market saw some weakness come out of the tech sector.

TXN: A long that is forming a pennant.

Shorts:

MRK: A sell short after the weak day it had yesterday.

ABT: A sell short that had an inside day yesterday. Looks really clean on the hourly.

GLW: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 17.00

CSCO: A sell short that continues to demonstrate weakness.

Breakouts:

TJX: In a range, could break either way.

ALL < 29.60

CVX < 81.90

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Wednesday's Game Plan

The market declined yesterday with most major ETF's declining and testing the 50 SMA. The weakest sector yesterday was gold as it demonstrated relative weakness compared to the market. We are in transition mode and could go either way. However I remain bullish till proven otherwise and even though most of my stocks sold off yesterday I remain careful anticipating the buyers to come back. In markets like these its best to either take the most obvious trades or do nothing.

Longs:

BK: A long that has been strong for a while now and is forming a bullish flag on the daily. 28.00 is the level to watch on this stock along with the XLF which is its sector.

USB: Strong stock that held at support yesterday .



Breakouts:

LLTC< 31.00

AVP< 28.40 , AVP> 29.00

ALL < 29.60

WLP < 55.90

Shorts:

KSS: 1-2-3 top on this A sell short that has been forming consistent lower highs and lower lows.

ABT: A sell short thats clearly making new lows every day and has room to go before a major support level.

GE: A sell short after the 1-2-3 top on the daily and the moving averages demonstrating weakness.

PRU: A sell short after yesterdays price action. IPT at 52.10 then at 51.00

CSCO: A sell short that is still weak and took out major support yesterday on above average volume and held.

GLW: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 16.90

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan Happy Eid!

My bias is kinda neutral at the moment, with the SPY forming an inside day yesterday after it went no where. The trend is still up and this small down move is nothing but a pullback on the higher timeframe. I am in stand aside mode at the moment unless the market becomes clear as its not worth the risk. In times of uncertainty it is to do nothing.

Longs:

SBUX: A long with room to go. Price has to go above 31.00

Breakouts:

COST> 66.00 long.

LLTC < 31.00

MO< 24.50

KSS< 50.80

Shorts:

ABT: A sell short that is obvious with room to go.

UNH: Weak stock that formed a top the became range bound for about a month before it broke down on above average volume. Price also managed to close below the 50 SMA which further emphasises UNH's weakness

Thats it! Short list today is the market isn't obvious!

Monday, November 15, 2010

Monday's Game Plan

The market on Friday was weak with the SPY closing down. On the daily time frame the SPY failed to take out its key resistance level at 122.00. and came right back in. The XLK closed at its key level and is yet to breach it. XLF on the other hand has already sunk back into its previous range on average volume. Technically speaking, we are still in a bull market and this short term decline could only be a pull back in the big picture. The SPY and QQQQ are still comfortably above the 50 and 200 SMA and the volume on the down days have been either average or below average signaling that a top is yet to form.

Longs:

DIS: A long that saw some massive volume right below its key resistance level at 38.00

JNPR: One of the strongest stocks from the tech sector on Friday after it closed at the highs and taking out its former range on above average volume,

VLO: A long the a demonstrated relative strength compared to the market on Friday.

XOM: A long that is still going strong.

HAL: A long that should only be looked at if its above 36:00
Breakouts:

TJX> 46.00

LLTC< 31.00

AMGN<54.00

JNJ<63.30

USB< 24.50

Shorts:

BMY: A sell short, this stock is also a stock in the weak XLV sector. IPT at 25.65

ABT: A sell short that sold off on decent volume on Friday.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Friday's Game Plan

Yesterday the SPY, QQQQ and DIA started the day off weakly and came right back up, typical price action of a bullish market, Price actin over the past 5 days had been really choppy but in the big picture, its nothing but a pullback after momentum. 112.50 Is the key level to watch in the DIA and 120:00 in the SPY. If prices come back into that range and close for the day then thats a bearish sign that things might be changing, so far shorts havent been working out due to the strong market but that might change soon. Commodities were the strongest sectors yesterday lifting the market a little bit with Tech and Financials starting the day weak but recovering into the day. I will keep an eye on commodities today as they led the market up yesterday.

Longs:

HAL: A long after taking out key levels in the afternoon session yesterday.

VLO: Another A long on above average volume in this energy stock.

CVX: Took out key resistance at 86.00 and closed above it. I expect some follow through if prices hold above 86.00

XOM: A long that is almost vertical on the daily charts which demonstrates the strong order flow in this stock.

Breakouts:

UNH>37.50

SLB>76.40

NUE>40.95

JNPR>35.00

ADM<30.50

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Thursday's Game Plan

Gold and commodities sort of rebounded yesterday after the sell off the day before signaling that the market isnt clear on a direction yet. I expect the market to consolidate and chop around before it sets a new direction. The SPY also failed to go below the day before and came back up to close at the highs, signaling that the buyers wont let go of this market easily. I expect a choppy day today as its a holiday in the US and banks will be closed.

Longs:

VLO: A long after breaking out of its key levels.IPT 19.96

WLP: Has been showing consistent relative strength in a relatively weak sector (XLV healthcare) Should XLV bounce then WLP is my play in the sector.

COP:  A long on this energy stock that followed commodities up yesterday. It is also strong on every timeframe.

WFC: Bullish flag on the daily chart after a momentum push. XLF has been strong in the past few days and WFC has been demonstrating that strength, should the XLF sector act strong again, Ill look at WFC.

USB: Another strong financial stock that is almost identical to WFC.

JNPR: Strong stock in the tech sector. It had been consolidating for the past few days, should this stock go above yesterdays range then that would give it alot of room to the upside.

ALTR: Strong stock and almost identical to ALTR.

XOM: Strong stock in the XLE sector that has room to go above yesterdays range. IPT at 72.10


Breakouts:

INTU > 49.00
Shorts:

MRK: Weak stock in a weak sector. IPT at 34.50

AMGN: A sell short that probably saw some short covering yesterday after it came back to close in the highs on average volume. Should we get some sort of continuation then the low of yesterday is a nice profit target.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Wednesday's Game Plan

The market sold of on Tuesday and came right back into the key levels it broke out from, it also looks like a double top in the SPY. Sellers were active in gold and commodities with GDX selling off hard and possibly forming a buying climax, they say price precedes news and that a top is in sight when sentiment is at its most positive, that might be the case in GDX as demonstrated in the chart above. Today I'll be cautious as we are still in a bullish market and a significant move in one candle or day in the opposite direction doesnt invalidate the trend. Other then gold, silver the sell off yesterday might have signaled a top in those markets but the other sectors are still intact, it remains to be seen whether those commodities drag down the market.

Longs:

XOM: A long even after yesterdays sell of, price is still holding above 70.00.

TXN: A long that has been pausing on very small candles after the push up

ALTR: A long that has been one of my favorite stocks so far, very readable and tradable

 Breakouts:

LLTC > 33.25

ADM < 30.50
Shorts:

AMGN: A sell short with room to go after it took out support. IPT 54.00

ABT: A sell short with some room to go. IPT 49.71 - 49.00

HGSI: A sell short that has room to go. IPT 23.25

NEM: My short play in gold, had a massive sell off yesterday. IPT 57.85.
MRK: A sell short that sold off on massive volume yesterday . IPT 34.50

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

Yesterday was another narrow day on low volume, the SPY closed up for the day on a melted candle on below average volume and thats bullish. Gold was the strongest sector yesterday followed by commodities and oil stocks. Should the market and SPY hold above 122.50 level today then I'd consider that really bullish. However, if we fail to hold above and start coming in then that would signal some weakness, and next support is at 120.00. I wont short this market aggressively if I sense some weakness as we are still in a bullish market.

* After going through my entire list, I came to the conclusion that the weak day in the financials sector was probably due to profit taking after the massive day on Friday as most declining stocks in the sector were on below average volume.

Longs:

ABX: A long that out performed yesterday and demonstrated relative strength in the market after it reflected the strength in gold.

GG: Same as ABX

WLP: A long that broke out of its key level at 58.50 with its next IPT at 60.00. WLP reacted rather strong even though its in a weak sector at the moment which is the healthcare sector XLV, and that relative strength could provide a good opporutnity to go long today.

ALTR: A long and one of the strongest stocks from the SMH and technology sectors.

NEM: A long after the 1-2-3 bottom on the daily chart. yesterday this stock broke out on decent volume and I expect to see some follow through today. IPT 63.60

MS: A long after yesterday price action and even after the relative weakness from the XLF and financial sector this stock closed strong. IPT at 27.80

TXN: A long and a very strong stock that had an inside day.

BK: A long that held relatively well compared to the XLF sector after the massive breakout on Friday that could have been profit taking.

WFC: Same as BK.



Breakouts:

HAL > 33.50

HPQ > 44.60, IPT 46.30

COP> 62.60

DD> 48.50

Shorts:

MRK: A sell short that had an inside day after it broke out of its key level at 36.00 and another weak stock from the XLV sector.

HGSI: A sell short that sold off on Friday and yesterday after it followed the weakness in the XLV sector.

Monday, November 8, 2010

LVS top?

Heres a chart of a stock that I never traded as it is involved in the Casino Industry. Its a stock that many professionals had been trading , and had jumped from $16 to $55 since the begining of the year. I have been monitoring this stocks progress daily and on Friday I noticed a potential short term or long term top in the stock.

Monday's Game Plan

On friday the market held above the key levels it broke out from, at first sight this would indicate that the market has accepted prices above resistance however, volume was low on the day the market held above the key level and whether prices remain above 122.00 in the SPY remains to be seen. That being said, the financials and its ETF the XLF were the strongest sector on Friday, that is positive for this market as the market usually follows the financials. XLK along with the QQQQ's on the other hand had an inside day on Friday and that might have curbed the bullish momentum a little bit. I remain bullish till proven otherwise.

Longs:

WFC: Finaly cleared its key levels and breezed passed its 200 SMA with ease. If prices hold above 29.50 then thats exceptionally strong for WFC.

BK: A long that cleared some key levels and took out its 200 SMA with ease on Friday, this stock also followed WFC footsteps and the XLF in general.

USB: A long with room to go after doing the same as BK and WFC. IPT at 27.00

ALTR: A long that is exceptionally strong in the XLK sector.

TXN: A long which and another very strong sector from the XLK sector.

XOM: A long that as long as it holds convinsingly above 70.00 has alot of room to go. XLE.

HON: Held up really well above its 49.00 key level, the volume was also very impressive on the breakout even though the candle is small. XLI.

TRV: A long on this XLF stock that also held well above its key levels, this stock has also been one of the strongest stocks in the sector.



Breakouts:

NUE > 40.90

NEM> 62.00

LLTC>33.00

Shorts:

MRK: A sell short after clearing some significant levels, 36.00 to be precise.

HGSI: A sell short that reacted pretty weak on Friday as this it sold of hard.

Friday, November 5, 2010

Friday's Game Plan

We finaly had our broadbased move yesterday after the market took out key levels and held. XLF finaly broke out yesterday, and it did so on above average volume! XLK also gapped up and held convinsigly and XLE had a bullish fuel candle day on above average volume. I am only looking to the long side today and I'll be looking to trade my plan.

Longs:

M: Finaly took its 25.25 level with above average volume. RTH also has a strong day, I expect follow through today.

AU: A long on this gold stock that had a strong up day yesterday as it followed the strong gold sector and GDX.

SLB: Took out resistance at 74:00 without looking back on a bullish fuel candle on above average volume. My play in XLE.

ALTR : A long coming into the day with another strong day yesterday. Strong stock in the SMH sector.

USB: A long after a massive breakout of 24.50 which had been resistance since May. The stock followed the strong XLF sector.

DOW: A long in this stock that followed the XLB sector, its also another stock that finaly took out its pre flash crash highs.

COST: A long with room to go after taking out its key 65.40 level.

HON: A long that broke out of its key resistance level on above average volume.

Breakouts:

VLO > 19.00

AXP> 44.00

HD> 32.10

Shorts:

ABT: A sell short that despite the broad based rally, ABT still declined on above average volume. Weak stock that demonstrated relative weakness.

AMGN < 55.40

Broad Based Baby

We finaly got a broadbased move in the markets today after weeks of choppy action. The charts above speak a thousand words!

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Thursday's Game Plan

The market was pretty volatile yesterday with many reports that came out towards the end of the day. However, the SPY managed to close above its key 119 level with conviction and on above average volume. The SPY closed at 119.95, 5 cents off of 120.00.The financials particularly caught my eye as they demonstrated strength. I am expecting to have an bullish market today and I will be paying extra attention to my longs.

Longs:

JNPR: A long

BK

HPQ

TWC

WFC

TXN

CHK

SLB

ALTR

AXP

Breakouts:

VZ > 33.00

Shorts:

ABT

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Wednesday's Game Plan

Agian the market trader in a very tight range but managed to close above 119.00, the SPY closed at 119.47 above previous consolidation. The QQQQ's and DIA also closed in similar fashion however, it is important to note that volume was very low and the spread was narrow. We need to take out 119.85 in the SPY convincingly before we can safely say that this market is strong again. XLF also needs to break out of its range as the market won't go anywhere if the financials are consolidating.

Longs:

HUM

LOW

UNH

EBAY

*AXP

*ABX

*UAL

Breakouts:

MGM

VZ > 33

WMT> 54.85

ALL < 30

* KSS < 51.00

Shorts:

ABT

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Tuesday's Game Plan

Little has changed as the market is still trading in its range and is unable to break away. The market is neutral at the moment with no clear bias. The big picture remains bullish but seems to be running out of steam.

Longs:

TXN

STT

ALTR

Shorts:

AET

CVS

Breakouts:

AXP

DOW

TJX

Monday, November 1, 2010

Monday's Game Plan


On Friday we had rather quite day, with the SPY forming an inside day along with the QQQQ's, XLK and XLF. A volatility breakout is imminent. Whether we get that volatile breakout today though doesn’t seem likely as the EUR has been choppy all day along with the fact that the only news catalyst coming out today is the ISM report. Unless we clear some significant levels, I won’t be that active today as the market is in balance and isn't demonstrating any clear direction. Gold is the only sector that showed relative strength on Friday and could be the only sector that’s in play today.

Longs:

ABX: A long in this gold stock thats reflecting the strength in the gold sector.

AA: A long after a major bullish candle on this slow moving stock.

ALTR: A long that broke ot of its key 31.00 level on Friday and held.

LLTC: A long after breaking out on Friday and clearing some significant levels.

TXN: A long

Breakouts:

AUY> 11.00

SLB > 70.00

Shorts:

SKX: A sell short that held well after the massive gap down

BK: A sell short again after yesterday. This stock also has room to go if it takes out its lows.

WLP: A sell short with room to go. IPT at 53.00

AET: A sell short after the weak price action on Friday.

Breakdowns:

CSCO < 22.80