Saturday, September 10, 2011


Longs: COG (69.50), C (26.50), VAR (51.50), JDSU (12.00), MS (15.00), PEP (double bottom first), JNJ (63.25),

Breakouts: HAL< (39.30), AXP< (47.00), SWN< (35.50), PM< (64.50 & 200SMA), DOW< (25.50 5 touches on support), MS < (15.25), ETN (38.00), SNDK<38.75

Notes:

I have no clue as to what will work out from my longs and breakdowns, what is clear is that we are in a downtrend, so breakdowns are more likely, burst of momentum to the upside are also possible but in order for me to get long, I want to see a bottoming pattern before I attempt to catch a falling knife.

If JDSU can hold the $12.00 level then it would be interesting to trade it long.

SPY in an ascending channel despite negative events taking place, price closed at the support trend line after it bounced right off of it. Given these market conditions, I expect to see a gap on Monday in either direction, should the SPY open below the trend line then I expect 114.50 to be tested and should it open above Fridays close then I expect 115.50 to be tested. At this point, the market could accelerate in either direction on Monday, making it critical to prepare for the open adequately.

The Dow Jones Industrials DJIA is also at a critical level, 11000 were breached again on Friday. However, it had also been breached twice in the past month which was then resulted in strong buying. Buying could take place on Monday, but I consider that unlikely with the index looking like a steep head and shoulders pattern, the level to watch here is 10950.

QQQ the NASDAQ ETF is consolidating forming a wedge, a breakout in either direction is imminent, 52.75 is the level to watch for a breakdown and 54.75 is the level to watch for a breakout. The QQQ is the strongest out of the three indexes (S&P , DOW, NASDAQ).

As for individual sectors, the XLB will catch my attention on Monday with Dow Chemicals (DOW) being the main stock I'd be watching in that sector. 5 support touches in the stock market usually doesn't hold. This and the fact that the XLB broke down from its wedge and is pausing right above the key 33.00 level, which if broken down, should bring down the entire sector with it.

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